The NFL spices up Christmas Day with two exciting matchups between AFC powers that have already secured a playoff spot.

At 1:00 p.m. ET, the action begins in Pittsburgh as the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Kansas City Chiefs, take on Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers. This Wednesday game marks the sixth different calendar day the Chiefs have played this season, having previously played games on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The Steelers are tied at the top of the AFC North and will be watching the following game closely…

The Baltimore Ravens travel to Houston to take on the Houston Texans, the team the Ravens eliminated in the divisional round last season. According to ESPN Research, the Ravens, led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, last had the Texans’ number, outscoring them by an average of 22.8 points in their four meetings since 2019.

Here you will find the odds, player recommendations and betting tips for the games on Wednesday.

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (open Chiefs -2.5)
Money line: Chiefs (-145), Steelers (+125)
Over/Under: 42.5 (open 43.5)

Distribution in the first half: Chiefs -0.5 (-110), Steelers +0.5 (-110)
First half moneyline: Chieftains (-140), Steelers (+110)

Matchup Predictor (according to ESPN Analytics): Chiefs with a 3.2 point lead (55.6% chance of winning)

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The props

Passing by

Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: 249.5 (above -130/below even)
Mahomes’ total pass TDs: 1.5 (above -120/below -110)
Russell Wilson total passing yards: 224.5 (above -120/below -105)
Wilson’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +115/Under -155)

Rush

Najee Harris Total Rushing Yards: 44.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Isiah Pacheco Total Rushing Yards: 39.5 (above -125/below -105)
Jaylen Warren Total Rushing Yards: 34.5 (above -120/below -110)
Kareem Hunt Total Rushing Yards: 34.5 (Over +110/Under -140)

Reception

Xavier Worthy receiving total yards: 44.5 (above -115/below -115)
Travis Kelce total receiving yards: 44.5 (above -120/below -110)
Hollywood Brown’s total receiving yards: 39.5 (above -120/below -110)
DeAndre Hopkins total receiving yards: 34.5 (above -125/below -105)

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The picks

Jaylen Warren longest rush UNDER 11.5 yards (-125)

Daniel Dopp: Warren and the Steelers take on a tough Chiefs run defense on Christmas Day, but instead of looking at total yardage, I’m focusing on Warren’s longest rush prop. So far this season, the Chiefs have allowed just 10 of the 257 running back rush attempts against them that went beyond 11 yards. Or to put it another way: Only 3.8% of the rush attempts reached the limit sought here. Warren, known as a pass catcher in this Steelers offense, has just six rush attempts over 11 yards this season and has failed to reach that line in three of his last four games.

It could be a tough game between Kansas City and Pittsburgh, but I still expect Najee Harris to get the majority of the floor in this backfield. Warren’s volatility always gives him a chance to break away for a big gain, but most of the time he comes out of the backfield as a pass catcher, which is why I’m taking the lower bounds on this prop.

Hollywood Brown OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-125)

Liz Loza: Xavier Worthy has been the focus of late, posting double-digit goals in consecutive games. But don’t sleep on Brown, who clearly showed off the rust in his 2024 debut against the Houston Texans in Week 16. The speedster ranked second on the team in targets, converting five of eight looks for 45 yards, including a 20-yard grab.

Worthy’s emergence makes him a bigger priority for the Steelers’ secondary. That should clear the field for Brown, who racked up 20 deep tackles in 14 games in 2023. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s defense has been both banged up and generous lately, allowing WRs to receive the ninth-most receiving yards over the last four weeks. While Donte Jackson is expected to return, Joey Porter Jr. is expected to be sidelined. Brown will likely take full advantage.

Game lines

Spread: Ravens -4 (open Ravens -3.5)
Money line: Ravens (-200), Texans (+170)
Over/Under: 46.5 (open 47.5)

Distribution in the first half: Ravens -2.5 (-125), Texans +2.5 (+102)
First half moneyline: Ravens (-180), Texans (+140)
Ravens total points: 25.5 (above -115/below -115)
Texans total points:20.5 (above -105/below -125)

Matchup Predictor (according to ESPN Analytics): Ravens by 4.9 points (63.7% chance of winning)

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The props

Passing by

Lamar Jackson total passing yards: 224.5 (above -115/below -115)
Jackson’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (above -165/below +125)
CJ Stroud total passing yards: 249.5 (above -105/below -125)
Stroud’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +120/Under -160)

Rush

Derrick Henry Total Rushing Yards: 89.5 (above -125/below -105)
Joe Mixon Total Rushing Yards: 69.5 (Over +115/Under -145)
Lamar Jackson’s total rushing yards: 44.5 (above -125/below -105)

Reception

Nico Collins total receiving yards: 79.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Dalton Schultz total receiving yards: 79.5 (above -130/below even)
Mark Andrews total receiving yards: 39.5 (above -125/below -105)

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The picks

Mark Andrews OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-120)

Loza: Andrews made his presence felt most clearly in the red zone, scoring four straight points. However, he hasn’t just been an end zone hero, drawing at least five looks in four of his last five games. Although he only managed 40 yards on two of those attempts, his chances of hitting the over look good given the confrontation.

The Texans defense suffered some big losses, including safety Jalen Pitre and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. Houston suffered another setback in Week 16 when safety Jimmie Ward left with a foot injury. As a result, Andrews expects to continue to be a focal point on offense, likely making four grabs for around 45 yards.

Nico Collins longest reception OVER 27.5 yards (-120)

Double: When he was healthy, Collins was great. He’s a big player that’s definitely waiting to play, and that should be on display during the Christmas game against the Ravens. Collins has a total reception of at least 26 yards one game this season. He’s hit that particular line in eight of his 10 games this season, including five of his last six.

With no Tank Dell for the rest of the season (we send all our positive feelings, prayers and good cheer to Tank as he recovers), Collins will be the focal point of this passing game and is in a good spot to have a deep finisher in Week 17. And that’s a pretty soft pass defense that Collins will face in Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed 17 completions of at least 28 yards to wide receivers this season, tied for the seventh-most and just four fewer than most in the NFL (the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions have allowed 21). I expect Nico to continue doing Nico things here on Christmas Day.

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