Three weeks before the end of the 2024 season, the race for the NFL’s most valuable player is entering its final phase. That means now is a good time to take a look at the top candidates from the last few weeks.

We asked 14 analysts – Matt Bowen, Dan Graziano, Kalyn Kahler, Matt Miller, Dan Orlovsky, Jason Reid, Jordan Reid, Aaron Schatz, Ben Solak, Mike Tannenbaum, Lindsey Thiry, Seth Walder, Field Yates and me – to vote on the top players in the MVP race over 15 weeks. We then used these 14 rankings to compile our consensus top five contenders.

The MVP award has gone to quarterbacks in each of the last 11 seasons, so it shouldn’t be surprising that signal-callers have the edge at this point. But the biggest surprise might be who is ahead this time. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has been at the top of our list this season, but Bills quarterback Josh Allen turned heads and turned heads with his season-high 362 yards against Detroit on Sunday. Two star quarterbacks and a dynamic running back round out our list.

Does the only non-QB on our list have what it takes to win an MVP award? Whose stocks will fall after 15 weeks of play? And whose stocks are rising? We answer these big questions and take a look at the top candidates and three players who narrowly missed the cut after Week 15.

All odds are via ESPN BET.

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A big question

Current odds: -900
Statistics for 2024: 3,395 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 5 INTs, 79.3 QBR (484 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns)

Allen has made a strong case for himself with back-to-back 300-yard passing performances and five total passing touchdowns in the last two games. The dual-threat quarterback also totaled 150 yards and five touchdowns during that span, becoming the first player in NFL history to record multiple passing touchdowns and rushing scores in consecutive games.

The expectation was that Allen would take a step back after Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs to the Texans and free agent Gabe Davis signed with the Jaguars. But he hasn’t missed a beat and is on pace to hit a career low in interceptions. Allen was a consistent force even though starter Khalil Shakir and rookie Keon Coleman missed a combined five games in November. He leads the QBR league and ranks in the top 10 in passing yards, yards per attempt (8.0), sacks (13) and touchdown-to-interception ratio.

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Current odds: +650
Statistics for 2024: 3,580 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, 3 INTs, 76.1 QBR (743 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns)

It’s hard not to put Jackson at the top of the list since the Ravens’ offense revolves so much around him. Sure, Derrick Henry’s 1,474 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns are impressive. But Jackson’s impact cannot be overlooked as defenses will need to add an additional defender to accommodate his dynamic rushing ability.

He continues to dismiss accusations that he’s not an elite passer despite playing without a top-notch receiver – 29-year-old Mark Andrews leads the team with eight touchdown catches. With 34 passing touchdowns, he is only behind Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (36). Jackson’s five passing touchdowns in Baltimore’s Week 15 win over the Giants tied a season high.

Two of the Ravens’ final three games are against AFC North opponents – Pittsburgh and Cleveland. He will have a good opportunity to strengthen his MVP position if he can help Baltimore overtake the 10-4 Steelers for the division title.

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Current odds: +1500
Statistics for 2024: 1,688 rushing yards, 11 TDs (276 receiving yards, 2 TDs)

MVP awards typically don’t go to non-quarterbacks unless another position player is having a super season. That’s exactly what Barkley has done so far. With 1,688 rushing yards in 14 games, he is on pace to become the ninth running back to gain more than 2,000 yards in a season.

That could give him a legitimate argument for MVP. Adrian Peterson ran for 2,097 yards in 2012 and won the award that season. However, Derrick Henry’s 2,027 rushing yards in 2020 weren’t enough to earn him the award.

The Eagles decided to focus their offense on Barkley after starting the year with a 2-2 record. This decision led to a 10-game winning streak and an NFL-best 186.2 rushing yards per game. Barkley’s 255 rushing yards in a prime-time game in Week 12 against the Rams put him in serious MVP consideration.

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Current odds: +2200
Statistics for 2024: 3,759 passing yards, 30 TDs, 10 INTs, 65.6 QBR (60 rushing yards)

Goff was once considered a throw-in for the trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the Rams. Now he’s the focal point of one of the NFL’s most exciting offenses. He ranks second in passing yards, fourth in touchdown passes and fifth in completions (314) and first-down passes (191). Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has maximized Goff’s skills by allowing more play-making passes. The results are clear: According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he has thrown for 1,396 yards on play-action passes under center this season, 255 more than the next closest quarterback.

Even though Goff lost the head-to-head battle with Allen last weekend, his 494 passing yards, five passing touchdowns and no interceptions are hard to ignore. Goff has an uphill battle ahead of him, but if he puts in a strong performance in the season finale against the Packers, he has a chance to overtake the others in this race.

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Current odds: +10000
Statistics for 2024: 3,348 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 11 INTs, 64.6 QBR (262 rushing yards, 1 touchdown)

Mahomes hasn’t put up the stats we’re used to. He’s unlikely to finish with 4,000 yards for the first time since becoming a starter in 2018, and he’s already racked up the most sacks of his career (35).

But without him, an MVP discussion simply isn’t possible. The Chiefs don’t have many targets Mahomes can rely on — wide receiver Hollywood Brown hasn’t played yet because of a shoulder injury, Rashee Rice suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 4 and running back Isiah Pacheco missed 11 weeks with a broken leg. But that didn’t stop Mahomes from helping Kansas City to an NFL-best 13-1 record.

The Chiefs have big games coming up against the Texans, Steelers and Browns, although a high ankle sprain could statistically keep him from qualifying for his third MVP. If he can work his magic and secure the No. 1 spot in the AFC, he should be considered.

Just missed it

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+8000)

Burrow leads the NFL in completions (361), passing yards (3,977) and passing touchdowns (36). He’s doing his part, but the Bengals defense isn’t up to it. At 6-8, Cincinnati is just outside the playoff bubble. No one would want to face the Bengals if Burrow is on a hot streak and gets his team into the playoffs.

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Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings (+10000)

Darnold enjoyed a career resurgence in Minnesota. He posted career highs in nearly every statistical category, including passing yards (3,530), completion percentage (67.6), touchdown passes (29) and QBR (60.2). He has the Vikings at 12-2 and tied with the Lions for the NFC North lead.

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Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (+40000)

It’s rare for a rookie to be in the running for MVP, but Daniels didn’t miss a beat when he landed with the Commanders. He has taken the NFL by storm with his dual-threat ability. He ranks in the top 15 in passing yards (3,045), passing touchdowns (17) and completion percentage (70.5). And he is second among quarterbacks in rushing yards (656) and third in touchdowns (six).

Washington had gotten off to a 7-2 start before a three-game losing streak brought the game back to reality, but it should still secure a wild-card bid.

Also received top 10 votes: Steelers LB TJ Watt, Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, Rams QB Matthew Stafford, Ravens RB Derrick Henry, Texans QB CJ Stroud, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, Packers QB Jordan Love, Broncos CB Pat Surtain II, Rams WR Puka Nacua, Chargers QB Justin Herbert, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, Texans WR Nico Collins, Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

Whose inventory increased after 15 weeks?

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: He has withdrawn from the group and is now a real threat for the title of Triple Crown winner. Only Steve Smith Sr. (2005) and Cooper Kupp (2021) have posted the league’s highest single-season totals in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns over the past 20 seasons. Chase’s rise began with his three-touchdown, 264-yard performance against Baltimore in Week 10. He has scored an NFL-best eight touchdowns over the last five games.

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Whose inventory is in deficit after 15 weeks?

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers: He had high expectations in his first season under coach Jim Harbaugh. But the Chargers have lost three of their last five games and are slipping to a No. 7 seed in the playoffs. Herbert has passed for more than 200 yards in just three of the last five games, and in Week 15 he made a costly third-quarter interception that helped the Buccaneers to a 40-17 victory.

Is there any way Barkley can finish strong enough to beat the QBs?

No. Although Barkley is on pace for a 2,000-yard rushing season, only four of eight running backs to reach that mark have won MVP honors. The award is increasingly aimed at quarterbacks, as only one running back has won in the last 15 years (Adrian Peterson in 2012). Even though the Eagles have relied on Barkley during their 10-game winning streak, the award will likely go to a quarterback.