Jason McIntyre

Co-host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Are you ready for Thursday night’s football showdown with the Chargers and Broncos?

I definitely am. But be careful, there has been some line movement.

The Chargers had a three-point lead at home, but those points are gone. The Denver money hit the market in the middle of the night on Wednesday.

The last meeting was in Week 6 and the Chargers dominated. They led 20-0 at halftime and 23-0 early in the fourth quarter before a miscue by Denver made the game seem closer than it was.

The Broncos had 83 yards rushing early in the fourth quarter before three rush-up offensive drives yielded 233 yards.

All season long, Bo Nix has worn down zone defense, but he has struggled in man defense. The Chargers’ flexibility under Jesse Minter did a great job of disguising the defense in the previous matchup, and Nix ended up passing six times and running for 61 yards.

It should be noted that the Chargers had an early bye.

Her week off was in early October, right before the Broncos game. They have looked like a exhausted team in recent weeks, scoring just 17 points in their last three games. By the way, they also didn’t have JK Dobbins in those three games (the Chargers have 12 players on injured reserve).

The hardest part of this handicap is considering how run down LA is. Quentin Johnston has an ankle problem and Will Dissly has a shoulder problem.

The Broncos had their bye two weeks ago, they only have four players on IR, and they’ve won four in a row – but take a closer look at these opponents.

You’ll notice that three of them were at home, and those wins came against teams that could be described as mediocre – Falcons, Raiders, Browns and Colts. And Nix hasn’t been great in the last two games, throwing five interceptions and recording two of his worst-graded QBR games of the season.

If you think the Broncos will win, they have an advantage over the sixth-place team and can avoid the Bills or Chiefs in the first round. The Chargers could be playing desperately because if they lose and the Bengals win, Cincinnati has a real chance of overtaking them for the final playoff spot.

And by “desperate” I mean trick plays, aggressive four-down calls – all of it.

If you don’t want to pick a side here, consider putting the Broncos at 8.5 or 9 and comparing them to a favorite like the Bengals, who would have fallen to 1.

PICK: Chargers (-2.5) win by more than 2.5 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA draft. Before joining FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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