With the NFL playoffs finally here, it’s time for my annual preview. If you don’t have time to watch the postseason this month and the Super Bowl in February, this article makes it easy for you: I break down who will win each of the 13 playoff games and why. No switching on necessary.

That’s a slight exaggeration. All it takes is one wrong prediction to complete the entire round and I’ll consider myself lucky to get through the first Saturday of Wildcard Weekend with a 3-on-3 win. All the preparation or research in the world means nothing when a quarterback tears his UCL in the first half, like Brock Purdy did in the NFC Championship Game two years ago, or when conditions freeze out an entire team, like the Dolphins did was in Kansas City last year. A bad call or losing streak can mean much more than just a team’s actual level of play against its opponent.

Instead, consider this a guide to what factors could decide games based on what we know about how these teams perform during the regular season. What were their strengths and weaknesses? How do they fit together? If they played earlier in 2024, what factors from that first or second game are likely to be repeated in the rematch? Is there anything about their roster or philosophy that could be different this time?

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Last season, for example, the Texans faced the Browns just three weeks after Cleveland marched up and down the field and scored five touchdowns in a 36-22 victory. However, the Browns thrived despite a brutal interception rate from Joe Flacco, and their defense was reeling after Myles Garrett suffered a shoulder injury, a trend masked by their unsustainable turnover rate. The Texans promptly defeated them 45-14 in their January rematch.

There’s just one problem: I’m too attached to my priorities. Before last season, I predicted that the Chiefs would beat the Cowboys in the Super Bowl, and when both teams made the playoffs, I stuck with that combination in my playoff preview. You know how that went, both good and bad.

Both teams in my preseason Super Bowl prediction are in 2024, and I may stick with them again as we look ahead to the postseason. There will be just a few surprises along the way. Let’s start with the AFC before we get to what feels like a wide-open NFC:

Jump to a round:
Wildcard weekend: NFC | AFC
Divisional round: NFC | AFC
Conference title games: NFC | AFC
Super Bowl LIX

AFC Wildcard Weekend

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS
Spread: BUF -8.5 (46.5)

Broncos fans are understandably excited about rookie quarterback Bo Nix after a near-perfect performance against the Chiefs. Kansas City benched its seven most-used defenders, and coordinator Steve Spagnuolo used the rookie just six times. But when a quarterback goes 26 of 29 for 321 yards with four touchdowns and completes seven carries for 47 yards, it’s hard to leave too many gaps in the results. Nix’s performance was the seventh best of the season according to Total QBR (97.3).