The NFL playoffs begin Saturday with two AFC wild card matchups.

In the first game, the fifth-seeded Los Angeles Chargers host the AFC South champions and the fourth-seeded Houston Texans.

In the second game, MVP candidate Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens face the AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers.

We break down both games and offer lines, props, tips, trends and more to help you prepare for all betting opportunities.

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Saturday’s wild-card doubleheader begins with the Chargers (11-6, 13-4 ATS) visiting the Texans (10-7, 7-10 ATS).

The Chargers (30-1 to win the Super Bowl) won their last three games of the regular season, including their last two on the road. The Texans (75-1 to win the Super Bowl) have lost two of their last three games but are capable of a win in the regular-season finale.

Los Angeles enters the match as a 3-point favorite.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS/Paramount+.

Game lines

Spread: Chargers -3 (Opened Chargers -2.5)
Money line: Chargers -155, Texans +135
Over/Under: 41.5 (open 44.5)

Distribution in the first half: Chargers -0.5 (-120), Texans +0.5 (-110)
Chargers Overall Score: 21.5 (above -115/below -115)
Texans total points: 19.5 (above -125/below -105)

Matchup Predictor (from ESPN Analytics): Chargers 52.8% chance of winning

Player props

Passing by

Justin Herbert’s total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Herbert total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +100/Under -132)
CJ Stroud total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Stroud’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +150/Under -210)

Rush

Joe Mixon Total Rushing Yards: 69.5 (above -125/below -105)
JK Dobbins Total Rushing Yards: 59.5 (above -120/below -110)
Herbert total rushing yards: 19.5 (above -105/below -125)

Reception

Nico Collins total receiving yards: 89.5 (above -105/below -125)
Ladd McConkey receiving total yards: 79.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Quentin Johnston total receiving yards: 44.5 (above -125/below -105)
Dalton Schultz total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Will Dissly receives total yards: 29.5 (above -125/below -105)
Joe Mixon total receiving yards: 19.5 (above -135/below +105)

Ben Solak’s choice

Chargers -3

The Texans are limping into the playoffs. Houston is 5-6 after a hot 5-1 start and lost Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell to injuries. The Texans’ offensive line continues to release pressure at one of the fastest rates in football, and the team’s defense is feeding off poor offense while struggling against playoff opponents.

The Chargers should be able to neutralize some of Houston’s pass rush with strong personnel and central play action, while Jesse Minter should create circles around Bobby Slowik defensively. The Texans were always going to show weakness in the postseason, and against a strong coaching staff like the Chargers, I’m willing to aggressively weaken Houston.

Betting trends and more

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The home underdogs in wild card games are 20-9-1 ATS overall with an overall record of 16-14. Last year, both home underdogs won clearly (Tampa Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Texans +2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns).

• No team had a better record against the spread than the Chargers this season. The Chargers are 13-4 ATS, 11-2 ATS as favorites and 6-1 ATS as away favorites. They have played five straight road games and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.

• It is the third time the Chargers have been away favorites in a playoff game (2022 at the Jacksonville Jaguars, 1982 at the Miami Dolphins). The Chargers lost both games.

• Eleven of the Texans’ 17 games this season have been under the overall odds, tied with the New York Giants for the highest under odds in the NFL. The Unders posted a 7-1 record in their home games in Houston this season.

• Since 2022, Justin Herbert has been the away favorite at 11-5 ATS.

• The Chargers are 7-2 ATS all-time against the Texans.

• The Texans have an ATS of 13-4 in the first half of the season, the best record in the NFL. The Chargers are 12-4-1 ATS in the first half, their third-best record.

• The Texans’ overs in the first quarter are 11-5-1 ATS, the best mark in the NFL.

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The Ravens (12-5, 10-7 ATS) enter Saturday’s game at home against the Steelers (10-7, 11-6 ATS) as near-double-digit favorites.

Baltimore finished the regular season with four straight wins, while the Steelers lost their last four.

The Ravens are tied with the Buffalo Bills as the third pick to win the Super Bowl, trailing only the Detroit Lions (+300) and Kansas City Chiefs (+350). Pittsburgh is at the bottom at 75-1.

The teams split the season, with the Steelers winning 18-16 against the Ravens in mid-November. Baltimore won its last game in Week 16 34-17.

Saturday night’s kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

Game lines

Spread: 9.5 (Open Ravens -8.5)
Money line: Ravens -550, Steelers +380
Over/Under: 43.5 (open 46.5)

Distribution in the first half: Ravens -6.5 (-105), Steelers +6.5 (-125)
Ravens total points: 26.5 (above -125/below -105)
Steelers total points: 16.5 (above -115/below -115)

Matchup Predictor (from ESPN Analytics): The Ravens have a 72.2% chance of winning

Player props

Passing by

Lamar Jackson total passing yards: 224.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Jackson’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (above -150/below +115)
Russell Wilson total passing yards: 199.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Wilson’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +170/Under -230)

Rush

Derrick Henry Total Rushing Yards: 99.5 (above -120/below -110)
Lamar Jackson’s total rushing yards: 49.5 (above -115/below -115)
Najee Harris Total Rushing Yards: 44.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Jaylen Warren Total Rushing Yards: 34.5 (above -105/below -125)

Reception

George Pickens total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Pat Freiermuth total receiving yards: 39.5 (above -105/below -125)
Mark Andrews total receiving yards: 44.5 (above -120/below -110)
Rashod Bateman’s total receiving yards: 44.5 (above -120/below -110)
Calvin Austin III total receiving yards: 24.5 (above -125/below -105)
Isaiah Likely Total Receiving Yards: 29.5 (above -105/below -125)
Warren receiving total yards: 24.5 (Over +110/Under -140)

Tyler Fulghum’s choice

Ravens -9.5

Of course, there are a lot of points to be scored in a playoff game, and I’m always happy to score points with Mike Tomlin, but this Ravens team may be the best in the NFL. After the bye in Week 14, John Harbaugh’s team is 4-0 on the field and against the team, with each win by at least 15 points. That includes a 17-point home win against the Steelers in Week 16.

Betting trends and more

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• In the Mike Tomlin-John Harbaugh matchups, underdogs are 25-10-1 ATS and 20-16 outright, including the Steelers, who are 13-4-1 ATS and 10-8 outright as underdogs. However, the Steelers have never been underdogs against the Ravens by more than 7.5 points in the history of the rivalry.

• Eight of the last nine sessions fell short of the total. The outnumbered score in the last 20 encounters is 14:6.

• Tomlin has an overall record of 53-53 in his career as an underdog (second best performance in the Super Bowl era, at least 10 games). He has an ATS of 63-39-4 (.618) in his career as an outside hitter. However, Tomlin is just 4-8 ATS as an underdog with more than one touchdown (7.5 or more points), which includes blowout losses in the 2021 and 2023 wild card rounds.

• Favorites with at least nine points are 15-1 overall and 13-3 ATS in wild card games. The only defeat was suffered by the only away team that was such a big favorite (2011 New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks, -10). Double-digit favorites are 10-1 overall and 9-2 ATS in wild card games (double-digit home favorites are 10-0 overall and 9-1 ATS).

• The Ravens have the highest over percentage in the NFL (13-4).

• The Ravens have played four straight games in the playoffs.

• The total has been exceeded in six of the Steelers’ last seven road games. Five of the Ravens’ last six home games have gone over the total.

• The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoff games. They are 2-8-1 ATS in the playoffs since 2011 and 7-10-1 ATS in the playoffs under Tomlin.

• The Steelers are 6-11 ATS in the first half of the season.

• The Steelers’ first quarter overs are 11-5-1 ATS this season, the best mark in the NFL. The Ravens’ first quarter overs are 4-12-1 ATS, the worst in the NFL .

• The Ravens have exceeded their team total in 12 of 17 games, making them the second-highest rate in the NFL.

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