Space weather forecasts suggest the Northern Lights may dwarf New Year’s Eve parties in up to 17 states in the northern and Midwestern United States. There have been a number of solar flares on the Sun’s surface in recent days, most notably an X-class event on December 29 that ejected two clouds of charged particles toward Earth.

“If a strong storm hits, northern lights could push into the mid-latitudes of the U.S. and Europe, competing with fireworks displays to start the new year,” SpaceWeather.com said. In addition to December 31st, northern lights demonstrations are also possible on January 1st.

When to see the Northern Lights

The charged particles are expected to hit Earth’s atmosphere today, on New Year’s Eve. A G3 geomagnetic storm — classified as “strong” by space weather researchers — could provide safety around noon EST. Moderate G2 or G1 conditions are expected to follow through midnight EST.

That’s why it’s a good decision to go out and look north as soon as it gets dark – even though the forecasts can be wrong. What will happen today is unknown as the Northern Lights are likely to be stronger or weaker than predicted. Observers need clear skies to see anything.

Where you can see the Northern Lights

According to NOAA’s auroral line-of-sight forecast, the northern lights may be visible from these 17 U.S. states: Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, New York , Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

“A geomagnetic storm warning G3 (strong) applies for December 31st and a G1 (minor) warning applies for January 1st. This is in anticipation of two Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME),” NOAA said. “An upgrade of the G1 watch to a G2 watch is being considered for January 1st.”

A CME is a cloud of charged particles from the Sun that takes a few days to reach Earth.

How to see the latest Northern Lights forecasts

The best way to stay informed is to use apps like Aurora Now, Aurora, and AuroraWatch and check NOAA’s 30-minute forecast. That’s because staff at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center can only know the properties of a CME when its particles hit the sensors on the DSCOVR and ACE satellites, which orbit Earth about a million miles away. They measure the speed and magnetic intensity of a CME, which is crucial for calculating the upcoming change in the solar wind. “CME is not expected to be a direct hit, which also makes forecasting intensity more difficult,” NOAA said.

What causes the Northern Lights?

The Northern Lights are caused by the solar wind, which consists of a stream of charged particles from the Sun that interact with the Earth’s magnetic field. These particles gain energy through coronal mass ejections, which take a few days to reach Earth. Auroras are often observed in polar regions, but when CMEs arrive in rapid succession, the aurora oval can expand, allowing auroras to be visible up to 25 degrees north and south of the equator.

According to NASA, on December 29, the Sun emitted three powerful solar flares – powerful bursts of radiation from the Sun – with events of classes X1.1, X1.5 and X1.1 recorded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s new GOES-16 Satellite.

The northern lights and the solar maximum

By 2024, solar activity was at a 23-year high and appears set to continue into 2025. In October, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel announced that the Sun had reached its Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. “Solar Maximum” phase, the climax of its 11-year solar cycle.

That could mean that the Northern Lights will occur at more southern latitudes than is typical, at least next year.

Follow my page for the latest Northern Lights forecasts until 2025.

I wish you clear skies and big eyes.