Christmas is over and Tottenham Hotspur find themselves in the bottom half of the Premier League table. While three games in the next 10 days offer an opportunity for rapid progress – especially with just six points separating fifth and 13th place – Spurs’ chances of salvaging this season in the domestic league appear to be slim , get into danger. Boxing Day’s visit to top-four side Nottingham Forest is just an isolated game, but given the current climate, every single game feels massive.

Forest have made a remarkable start to the season, even if the analysis and betting markets are slow to believe it. Despite the current eight-point gap, Spurs still have comparable chances of securing a place in the top four. These predictions may hold true once key absentees are fully healthy, but right now these teams are nothing alike. A win on Thursday could boost optimism for promotion, but a defeat would confirm Tottenham’s place in the table.

Nottingham Forest (4th, 31 points) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (T-11, 23 points)

Date: Thursday, December 26th
Time: 10:00am ET, 3:00pm UK
Location: The City Grounds, Nottingham
TV: Peacock (US), Amazon Prime Video (UK)

How does a team that ranks 13th in goals scored end up in fourth place? The answer lies in Forest’s stingy defense, which has conceded just 19 goals in 17 games. Despite an almost even goal difference, Forest have mastered the art of scoring efficiently – winning four of their last five games, three of which were scored by a single goal. It’s been an exciting season for Nuno Espirito Santo, having narrowly avoided relegation following his appointment last winter.

Tottenham played a crucial role in this change of leadership, defeating Steve Cooper’s side 2-0 at the City Ground, a result which ultimately led to Nuno’s appointment. Spurs completed the league double with a 3-1 win at the new lane, thanks to goals from Micky van de Ven and Pedro Porro. Since Forest’s promotion in 2022/23, Spurs have taken all 12 points, although Forest managed one win in the League Cup this season.

All or nothing

While Forest benefited from narrow victories, it was exactly the opposite for Tottenham: their last five league wins were all achieved by at least three goals difference. Spurs’ attack has been inconsistent this season, but they have scored 16 goals in their last five games in all competitions. Unfortunately, there were also defensive weaknesses that made Tottenham one of the best performing teams in the league. This clash of styles – Forest’s defensive discipline versus Spurs’ attacking prowess – sets the stage for an interesting affair.

Despite Forest’s defensive solidity, Tottenham’s red-hot attack gives cause for optimism. Newcastle, Arsenal and City each scored three times more than Forest in (somewhat) recent wins, exposing its potential weaknesses. Ange Postecoglou’s side have shown their attacking prowess recently, as the club’s key injuries tend to have a detrimental effect on defence. If Spurs want to leave the City Ground with three points, they will once again have to rely on their attackers to compensate for a shaky defense.

The strongest will

Postecoglou remains true to its philosophy and approach. Critics frustrated by his commitment to an attacking style that leaves defenses exposed will not find comfort any time soon. However, a loss against the best team in the league doesn’t really bring us anything new. Even a more conservative style wouldn’t suddenly turn this group of defenders into world-class players, and such a shift would inevitably come at the expense of the team’s attacking ability.

I agree with Postecoglou’s belief that the only viable path is to move forward, regardless of who is available. While this may lead to ongoing frustration, it’s important to view this as a long-term project and not a quick fix. It can be discouraging to watch teams like Forest climb the table with strong defense, but that is not the direction this club has taken. A win on Thursday would be a big step towards justifying this path.