As we approach the semifinals of the second annual NBA Cup in Las Vegas, it’s easy to overreact due to the format of the tournament.

Unlike a best-of-seven playoff series that tests teams’ stamina and adaptability, for teams like the Atlanta Hawks it’s more difficult for teams like the Atlanta Hawks due to the NBA Cup’s short group stage (four games), followed by a knockout .-o.-round with only one elimination, easy to get a lead fire and advance.

On the other hand, losing teams like the Golden State Warriors and New York Knicks won’t get an immediate opportunity to redeem their poor performances on Wednesday. Meanwhile, several of the league’s biggest title contenders – including two of the top three teams so far, the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers – will watch the semifinals from home.

To avoid falling victim to recency bias, let’s examine some possible conclusions about this season’s NBA Cup and the format of the tournament as a whole. Are these short-lived overreactions to what happened at the start of the 2024-25 NBA season? Or significant trends that could continue beyond next Tuesday’s championship?