Penn State-Boise State picks and predictions

The first quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff has no shortage of intrigue. No. 3 seed Boise State returns to the site of three of the program’s biggest victories – the Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos famously beat Oklahoma in 2006, but also won against TCU and Arizona at Arizona State.

Tuesday night’s opponent in Glendale will be Penn State. The Nittany Lions are seeking the program’s first national title since 1986. They will also look to end the struggles coach James Franklin has experienced in big games. Some of that frustration was assuaged by a convincing loss to SMU in the first round. But this is another game where Penn State is a heavy favorite, and a loss will only add to the pressure on Franklin to contend next season.

It turns out it’s a special way to spend New Year’s Eve and ring in 2025. So who wins? Our experts give their forecasts.

Scooby Axson

Task No. 1, 2 and 3 for Penn State’s defense is stopping Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty. Both teams have a +7 turnover margin, which determines the winner of the game. This game is not played on paper; otherwise, Penn State would win. So expect Boise State to empty the playbook on offense with a heavy dose of Jeanty and get Drew Allar on defense to beat them in the air. Penn State 30, Boise State 20.

Jordan Mendoza

Ashton Jeanty will face a strong Penn State defense that will make stopping the run a top priority. The Broncos’ running back may make it to the end zone, but he’s limited and unable to get Boise State to get past the Nittany Lions. Penn State 23, Boise State 16.

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Paul Myerberg

The deciding factor will be whether Ashton Jeanty can hit the ground running and match Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record. Penn State’s strong run defense will make things difficult for Jeanty and the Broncos. Another key is the Broncos’ play on both lines. Can they protect the passer and pursue Drew Allar? The Nittany Lions have more room for error and could survive without playing their best game. Penn State 28, Boise State 17.

Eric Smith

The narrative about Boise State pulling off an upset often cites the Broncos’ narrow loss at Oregon as a reason for optimism. But this game lasted three months. Penn State has too much muscle and speed on defense to give Boise State much breathing room. The rushing attack from Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen should slowly wear the Broncos down en route to a comfortable win. Penn State 30, Boise State 14.

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Penn State-Boise State picks and predictions

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