Pete Alonso’s free agent market teams

Pete Alonso’s free agent market teams

For all the chatter surrounding the top players on this year’s free agent market, the buzz around one notable name has remained relatively quiet: Pete Alonso.

The Polar Bear has been one of the top power hitters in the game since breaking into the majors in 2019. He hit 226 home runs – more than anyone not named Aaron Judge – and posted at least 4.0 bWAR in three of his five full-run seasons.

But as we head towards Christmas, the market is eerily quiet for Alonso. Why was that so?

Teams seeking help at first base include the Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Astros and D-Backs, none of whom seem inclined to make Alonso the offer he’s looking for — at least not right now. With Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana also available on the free agent market, and potential trade candidates like Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Naylor and Yandy Díaz potentially in play, there are a number of options for teams to consider should pull.

Alonso reportedly rejected a seven-year, $158 million extension offer from the Mets in 2023. So after making $20.5 million in 2024, he would have to sign a six-year deal worth around $137.5 million to justify that decision.

That should be feasible for the 30-year-old, although given the wealth of options at the position, he may have to wait until January or February to secure such a deal.

A number of other top free agents remain available, including Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Tanner Scott, Sean Manaea and Jurickson Profar, giving teams with flexible payroll a variety of options to spend money.

First basemen were among the highest-paid players in the game just a decade ago, including Miguel Cabrera ($248 million), Albert Pujols ($240 million), Joey Votto ($225 million) and Prince Fielder ($214 million US dollars). closed deals worth more than $200 million between 2012 and 2016.

That wasn’t the case in the 2020s. Matt Olson’s $168 million contract with the Braves and Freddie Freeman’s $162 million free agent deal with the Dodgers have propelled the first base market in recent years. Of the 10 first base contracts in history with the highest average annual value, only Freeman, Olson and Goldschmidt (5 years, $130 million) have signed since 2020.

The Yankees have been busy since losing Juan Soto to the Mets, signing Max Fried to an eight-year, $218 million contract before trading for Devin Williams and Cody Bellinger. It remains to be seen whether New York will spend big to fill its vacancy at first base, but the Yankees are keeping their options open in both the free agent and trade markets.

“All I can say is that I spoke with Scott Boras about his inventory that fits our club,” Cashman said Wednesday. “Obviously (Alonso) plays first base and that’s a potential vacancy, so it’s a conversation we’ve had. I also talked to him about other players on his roster, both on the position player side and the pitching side, who fit. Not just him, other agents and the same goes for the players in the trade portal.”

The Astros remain busy with Alex Bregman, whose return to Houston would mean moving newly acquired Isaac Paredes to first base. The more likely scenario is that the Astros sign a first baseman and play Paredes at third, but Alonso could be out of Houston’s price range.

Seattle wants to improve its roster, but unless the Mariners manage to move some money through a trade – Luis Castillo, perhaps? – It seems unlikely they would sign a nine-figure free agent.

If the D-Backs are spending big money on a first baseman, it would make sense for them to simply bring back Walker, who has thrived in Arizona over the last three seasons.

That brings us back to the Mets, who caught the biggest fish of the offseason with their $765 million deal with Soto. Steve Cohen’s team might end up bringing Alonso back to New York, but the Mets appear content to let his free agency play out in the coming weeks before making a big offer. Industry sources have speculated that Alonso could sign a five-year deal worth $125 million to $140 million to return to the Mets, with an opt-out clause after the first and/or second year of the contract, giving him the opportunity to try out for free if he does believes that there is a better market after 2025 or 2026, he will contact the agency again.

An American League executive called Alonso “a complicated player” and pointed to some drawbacks on his free agent resume.

“He’s in his 30s and is a right-handed first baseman who is good – but probably has his best year behind him,” the general manager said. “He’s not a defender and he’s not an athlete, but he has no problem being in the spotlight. He hits home runs and hits them in big spots. He’s a tough guy.”

Alonso’s OPS has dropped from .869 to .821 to .788 over the past two years, while his strikeout percentage (24.7) last season was his highest since 2020, marking the second straight year that number has increased. Alonso’s defense has been consistently poor throughout his career, but his -9 outs above average in 2024 was his worst record in six big league seasons.

“Pete is in a tough spot,” said one National League executive. “There doesn’t appear to be much of a market for him based on his defense, and since there are so many first basemen, no one is in a hurry to overpay any of them.”

Why don’t teams show first basemen as much money as they did in the 2010s? The position has become baseball’s equivalent of running back in the NFL: Many clubs believe it can be filled without spending a lot.

The numbers support this theory. Of the top 10 first basemen by salary last season, only Bryce Harper, Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Olson finished in the top 10 in fWAR at the position. The other six – Santana ($5.25 million), Walker ($10.9 million), Lowe ($7.5 million), Michael Busch ($741,500), Díaz (7, 74 million US dollars) and Josh Naylor (6.5 million US dollars) – each cost significantly less in 2024.

While Soto and Willy Adames signed big deals this offseason, it seems no coincidence that no first baseman had signed as a free agent as of Thursday.

Alonso could eventually find the deal he is looking for, although it looks like he will have to wait at least a few more weeks for that to happen.

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