SAN ANTONIO – Four teams finished atop the Big 12 final standings, but because of tiebreakers, Arizona State and Iowa State were selected to play for the conference title.

The two tiebreaker runners-up, BYU and Colorado, will finally meet in Texas on Saturday night (5:30 p.m. MST, ABC) at the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio.

While this game won’t involve a conference title or playoffs, it’s sure to draw a national audience thanks to BYU’s large fan base, Colorado’s star power and 19-5 overall record. BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff even called it “the people’s Big 12 title.”

Victory milestones are also at stake. BYU won 11-plus games 11 times over the 30-year period (1979-2009), but has done so only once since then. Colorado is seeking its 10th win, a milestone they have only achieved eight times in school history.

The contrast in program styles will be fascinating as Colorado’s Deion Sanders embarked on the most aggressive transfer rebuild in college football history while BYU remains committed to the longer-term player development culture. This will be a must-watch bowl game.

Game grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Colorado 24.3 (69th)
Season 2023: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Colorado 37.5 (55th)
2024 season: BYU 67.9 (14th) | Colorado 67.0 (15th)

My Game Grader Formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts based on the strength of the opponent and is an important part of my evaluation before and during the season.

BYU has exceeded all preseason expectations with its 10-2 season and remains in the top 15 despite narrow losses to Kansas and Arizona State.

Sanders’ unprecedented roster overhaul via the transfer portal caused some growing pains in 2023, but in his encore season they turned the record around from 3-9 to 9-3. They are currently ranked 15th in the 2024 Game Grader — one spot behind BYU — and are Colorado’s best grade since 2016.

Colorado with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings per game via Pick Six Previews)

Colorado offense (2024): 41st of 70 Power Four (8th passing, 69th rushing)
BYU defense (2024): 14th of 70 Power Four (4th pass, 31st rushing)

Colorado boasts one of the most pass-heavy offenses in America, and for good reason. This scheme takes advantage of their strengths – dynamic quarterback Shedeur Sanders and a deep arsenal of receivers – and mitigates their weaknesses on offense.

The line is one of the few in America that ranks 100th or worse in both my pass protection sack rate and my OL run push metrics. But that hasn’t stopped them from putting together a historic transition season and bolstering Travis Hunter’s two-pronged Heisman campaign.

Hunter is the headliner on the outside all season with 1,152 receiving yards (7th nationally), 14 touchdowns and impact plays. LaJohntay Wester (880 yards), Will Sheppard (617) and Jimmy Horn (434) make this position group one of the best in the country.

While Hunter won the Heisman, Sanders had a trophy season of his own. Without the help of his offensive line, the elusive dual-threat QB did it all, ultimately finishing in the national top five in several key categories: QB rating, passing touchdowns and yards per game. He even led the nation with a completion rate of 74.2%.

When Colorado passes the ball, there will be strength upon strength as they face the No. 4 pass defense according to my opponent-adjusted Game Grader formula. BYU held all 12 opposing passing offenses below their season average in comprehensive QB rating and finished in the top 20 in all of my key pass defense metrics.

In terms of bowl opt-outs, transfers and injuries, the only loss for BYU’s starting defense appears to be the departure of safety Crew Wakely. For Colorado, Sanders said he expected everyone to play, and Hunter and Shedeur Sanders took out record-breaking “bowl injury insurance.”

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings per game via Pick Six Previews)

BYU offense (2024): 31st of 70 Power Four (47th passing, 24th rushing)
Colorado Defense (2024): 10th of 70 Power Four (25th passing, 13th rushing)

BYU’s passing attack has declined over the course of the season. In the first six games they were in the top 40 in my opponent-adjusted passing metrics, but in the last six games they were in the bottom 10.

Retzlaff ranked sixth in the Big 12 in QB rating, but ranks 12th in both completion percentage and picks thrown.

Colorado’s offense is flashy and grabs headlines, but their defensive turnaround has been an even bigger driver of their success. In the offseason, they hit the transfer portal and brought in several Power Four starters on the defensive line.

The plan worked and Colorado rose to 10th nationally in my total defense number and 25th in negative play rate, which shows the frequency of plays behind the line of scrimmage. Statistically, this is the toughest defense BYU has faced all season.

As far as bowl opt-outs and transfers go, the only starter gone here is Colorado linebacker Nikhai Hill-Green, who signed with Alabama. Injury-wise, BYU offensive linemen Brady Keim and Isaiah Jatta missed both games in November and are not listed on the bowl depth chart.

Match prediction

Aside from the playoff games, this is the bowl game I’m most looking forward to. The Game Grader season-long formula calls for this to be a virtual selection, so I focused on recent performances.

In the second half of the season, BYU is 4-2 and their four wins have an average victory margin of 7.2. Colorado is 5-1, with an average margin of victory of 26. In a Game Grader tie, I’ll side with the momentum pick.

Colorado 30 | BYU20