Picks against the spread for each game

Picks against the spread for each game

A few weeks ago in The Post, colleague Ryan Dunleavy examined whether this 100th season in Giants history is the worst of all.

At 2-11 with four games to go, this team can’t reach the level of the 1966 edition in terms of record (1-12-1) and winning percentage (.107) – but there are other considerations that might suggest so reach an all-time low.

The Giants could go winless in the NFC East for the first time since the division was founded in 1970. For the first time since 1974 they could remain winless at home. They scored the fewest points in the NFL (194 – 27 fewer than the next-worst Patriots). This would be the first time they finished last since 1953, when the league consisted of 12 teams.

Now there are some new numbers to add to the stew.

The Giants are currently 16-point underdogs for Sunday’s game against the Ravens, their largest home underdog split on record – and that time frame includes their homes at Yankee Stadium, Yale Bowl, Shea Stadium, Giants Stadium and now MetLife .

In addition, interest in the team decreases. Yes, there was the small plane flying over MetLife last Sunday with the banner urging John Mara to “fix this dumpster fire.”

But the secondary market at Vivid Seats tells a different story: Tickets for the Week 17 home game against the Colts start at $9, with dozens of seats available for $14 and less.

It is fundamentally against my religion for me to give up more than two touchdowns on the road in an NFL game, but I see no alternative here. The game is crucial for the Ravens, who are in the hunt for the Steelers in the NFC North and are fully healthy and coming off a bye.

I don’t understand how the Giants, who are missing Dexter Lawrence, can stop Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson and Co. Or how Tommy DeVito can make the scoreboard worse if Malik Nabers and most of his offensive line are rated questionable or worse.

Minus-16 looks a little less daunting when you look at the reasonable final scores that would cover it – such as 31-13 or even 27-10.

The Pick: Ravens -16.

Malik Nabers #1 of the New York Giants reacts after the loss to the New Orleans Saints at MetLife Stadium on December 8, 2024 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Getty Images

New York Jets (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Aaron Rodgers had his first 300-yard passing game as a Jet with 339 at Miami, and the team still appears to be competing for Jeff Ulbrich. In their last three losses, the Jets averaged 24.6 ppg, while the Jaguars averaged 10.75 ppg in Mac Jones’ four games as the primary quarterback. I expect the Jets to have a day in the sun this season.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (+4) over Kansas City Chiefs

Watching Jameis Winston play football is like a day at the circus. The experience ranges from seeing death-defying acts to smelling the elephants. He has home wins against the Ravens and Steelers. The Chiefs are 12-1, but have also failed to cover their last seven games.

TENNESSEE TITANS (+5) over Cincinnati Bengals

The Titans have picked up isolated road wins against the Dolphins and Texans, but those are their only covers in 12 games. Still, I’m happy to score significant points at home against Cincinnati’s defense. The Bengals got a similar margin in Dallas as they did in Dallas, but needed an incredibly stupid play to make it happen.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) leaves the field after the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on November 17, 2024. Sam Greene/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Washington Commanders (-7.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Derek Carr broke his non-throwing hand in the win over the Giants and subsequently suffered a concussion. With Taysom Hill out, it will be a big problem for Saints supporters as Carr is now also ruled out and Jake Haener is set to start in his place. Washington doesn’t have a late-season bye, Jayden Daniels is returning to Louisiana and Marshon Lattimore should make his Commanders debut against his old team.

Dallas Cowboys (+3) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Carolina has covered spreads five straight, but has gone 2-3 outright in games where the average spread was +9. Four of these games were decided by three points or fewer. So I’m not entirely willing to support them giving up a full field goal when they’ve been the underdog for the last 33 games.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush reacts during the second half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, in Arlington, Texas. AP

Miami Dolphins (+3) over HOUSTON TEXANS

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle played with injuries against the Jets and are considered questionable. The bigger issue for Miami is that LT Terron Armstead will be out, and that will make it a tough day for Tua Tagovailoa against Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. However, the Texans play many games with just one possession, and even that small margin could be decisive in the end.

Indianapolis Colts (+4) over DENVER BRONCOS

When we last saw the Broncos, they surrendered 497 passing yards and 552 yards of total offense to the Browns in a game they ultimately won 41-32 thanks to three Winston interceptions. The Colts don’t have great stats, but they’re a mid-range team that’s quite capable of making this a dogfight.

DETROIT LIONS (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills

The Bills’ struggling defense has been a problem for some time now – it has yielded 27, 20, 21 and 44 points in the last five weeks. The Lions should be able to do everything the Rams did in their 44-42 win last Sunday, but Detroit also has the offensive line and ball control ability to keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands to keep.

Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills looks to throw a pass during the second quarter of a game against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on December 8, 2024 in Inglewood, California. Getty Images

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-5.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers

George Pickens’ injury is a major problem for the Steelers. This could be the game where Pittsburgh gets exposed by an elite team. It’s hard to ignore Mike Tomlin’s career record of 66.1 percent coverage as an underdog, but sometimes you have to fold your straight when you suspect a flush.

New England Patriots (+6) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

While the Cardinals have had some stunning home wins this season, their current three-game losing streak, in which they averaged 15.3 ppg, makes me not want to count that number against a New England team that is 3-3. 10 stands, but had its moments. Maybe the Week 14 bye will rejuvenate the Patriots a bit.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Some will question the Bucs’ three-game series because the wins came over the Giants, Panthers and Raiders. Concerned about Mike Evans’ injury, but Baker Mayfield has already made it without him. And the Chargers have their own injury concerns, including Justin Herbert.

Geno Smith throws a pass in the Seahawks’ Week 12 win over the Cardinals. AP

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+2.5) over Green Bay Packers

It’s surprising to see the Seahawks as such big underdogs when they’re 8-5 and in first place in the NFC West with a four-game winning streak. The Packers also have some injuries in their secondary that Geno Smith and his healthy receiving corps could take advantage of.

MONDAY

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-7) over Chicago Bears

The Vikings led 24-10 in Chicago before winning 30-27 in overtime on November 24th. Sam Darnold threw for 330 yards and two touchdowns. Caleb Williams threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns, but the Bears looked like they had finished the season last week in San Francisco after Matt Eberflus’ legitimate shot.


Betting on the NFL?


Atlanta Falcons (-4) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

The Falcons remain one of the mysteries of the 2024 season. The names look good on the depth chart, but they are 6-7 with just one win by more than a point. It’s a long shot to get more than just a field goal on the road, but I expect playoff desperation to come out on top against a Raiders team that may need to use Desmond Ridder at quarterback.

BEST BETS: Buccaneers, Colts, Seahawks.

CASTLE OF THE WEEK: Buccaneers (locks 7-7 in 2024).

LAST WEEK: 6-6-1 overall, 1-2 best bets.

THURSDAY: Rams (W).


Why should you trust New York Post Betting?

Dave Blezow is one of the longest-serving NFL handicappers at the post, with his selections dating back 31 years. He won the Post’s NFL betting ratings in 2021 and the playoffs most recently in 2023.

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