The Calgary Flames welcome the Tampa Bay Lightning to the Scotiabank Saddledome tonight and the Flames will improve on their outstanding 10-3-1 home record.

Calgary has been a strong defensive performer at home, and my Lightning vs. Flames predictions are for Tampa Bay to struggle again on the road.

Read more in my NHL picks for Thursday, December 12th.

Flames vs Lightning Prediction

My Flames picks
Under 6.5 (-120 at BET99)

My Flames analysis

The home ice was good for the Calgary Flames, and the highway ice was the exact opposite for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Calgary has allowed the second-fewest goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five (1.33) and the fourth-fewest goals per game (2.21) at home, while Tampa’s 5-on-5 numbers are plummeting on the road.

This will also be the third stop of a four-game road trip for the Lightning, and top-six center Anthony Cirelli (upper body) and top-four defenseman Erik Cernak (lower body) are both injured and did not play against Tuesday Edmonton.

Additionally, Calgary has trended under the under all season (12-17), and the total has been under the under in seven of the last nine Flames home games.

At the Scotiabank Saddledome, goaltending was king, with Dan Vladar and Dustin Wolf posting a league-high .956 SV% at 5-on-5. Even if that efficiency isn’t sustainable over the long term, this is a one-game pitch against a top-heavy offense that struggles to score on the road without the benefit of last-change advantage.

I also estimate that the Flames hold their opponents to the eighth-fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 play on home ice and that Calgary thrives in defensive-focused games. It’s the recipe for success for head coach Ryan Huska.

Flames vs. Lightning – Match Game Parlay (SGP)

Flames money line

Under 6.5

Connor Zary Over 1.5 shots

Given the Lightning’s significant away deficiencies, Calgary is a solid choice as a home underdog on Thursday. Tampa Bay is losing possession (48.9% CF) and expected goals (47.3%) on the road, while Calgary is 10-3-1 on home ice.

This is also a difficult schedule for Tampa Bay, and if Cirelli and Cernak are out or playing less than 100%, it will be a major blow to an already flat lineup.

Connor Zary has taken two or more shots in six of the last eight games and 19 of 29 on the season. The third-line center also benefits from being placed further down the depth chart, as top-six forwards Nazem Kardi and Mikael Backlund will face the toughest matchups on the ice.

Zary also boasts a solid 53.4 CF% at 5v5 and a relatively elite CF% of 9.7, so I expect him to continue to tilt the ice in his favor.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Flames vs Lightning odds

Flames vs Lightning live odds

Flames vs. Lightning opening odds

• Puck line: Calgary +1.5 | Tampa Bay -1.5
• Money line: Calgary +125 | Tampa Bay -150
• Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6

Odds courtesy of BET99

Flame versus lightning trend

Calgary has gone to the under in seven of its last nine home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Lightning.

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