PREVIEW: Iowa MBB at Michigan

PREVIEW: Iowa MBB at Michigan

PREVIEW: Iowa MBB at Michigan

WHO: Michigan Wolverines (7-1, 1-0 Big Ten)

WHEN: 1:00 p.m. CT (Saturday, December 7, 2024)

WHERE: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, MI)

TV: FS1 (Sloane Martin, LaPhonso Ellis)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)

MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile

ON-LINE: foxsports.com/live

CONSEQUENCES: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @CBBonFOX | @IowaonBTN

LINE: Michigan -8.5 (158.5 total)

KENPOM: Michigan -9 (Michigan 77% chance of winning)

The second half of the preseason preview of Iowa’s 2024-25 Big Ten schedule pits the Hawkeyes against a red-hot Michigan team. The Wolverines are 7-1 this season and are riding a six-game winning streak heading into Saturday afternoon’s game, including a 67-64 win over #11 Wisconsin earlier this week.

The Wolverines are not yet ranked in the AP Poll, but they are ranked 23rd in the Coaches Poll and are rated even higher by NET (19) and KenPom (16). In fact, they’re the second-highest Big Ten team in the current KenPom ratings, just behind Oregon at No. 15. Home or away, this Michigan team would significantly increase the difficulty level for this Iowa team – but a road trip to Crisler Center should only increase the challenge for Iowa.

PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP

G Brock Harding (6’0″, 165 lbs; 10.0 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 6.3 apg; 52.4 FG%; 47.6 3FG%)

G Josh Dix (6’6″, 210 lbs; 13.0 ppg; 3.4 rpg; 3.1 apg; 52.4 FG%; 38.2 3FG%)

F Payton Sandfort (6’8″, 215 lbs; 16.1 ppg; 6.0 rpg; 4.0 apg; 40.2 FG%; 30.2 3FG%)

F Ladji Dembele (6’8″, 255 lbs; 4.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg; 1.0 apg; 38.9 FG%; 33.3 3FG%)

C Owen Freeman (6’10”, 245 lbs; 17.3 ppg; 7.6 rpg; 1.3 apg; 65.0 FG%; 42.9 3FG%)

Seydou Traore and Cooper Koch remain out, but everyone else should be available for Iowa vs. Michigan.

PROJECTED MICHIGAN STARTING LINEUP

G Tre Donaldson (6’3″, 195; 11.4 ppg; 3.0 rpg; 3.9 apg; 47.0 FG%; 43.3 3FG%)

G Nimari Burnett (6’5″, 200; 9.8 ppg; 3.5 rpg; 1.8 apg; 51.9 FG%; 47.2 3FG%)

F Roddy Gayle (6’5″, 205; 11.6 ppg; 3.5 rpg; 3.3 apg; 49.3 FG%; 39.1 3FG%)

F Vladislav Goldin (7’1″, 250; 11.0 ppg; 4.8 rpg; 0.8 apg; 57.9 FG%; 50.0 3FG%)

C Danny Wolf (7’0″, 250; 12.0 ppg; 9.5 rpg; 3.1 apg; 54.4 FG%; 34.8 3FG%)

PREVIEW

Current head coach of Michigan Dusty May came to Ann Arbor after spending the last six years at Florida Atlantic, culminating in a Final Four appearance with the Owls two years ago. May hit the ground running at Michigan, got off to a 7-1 start in Ann Arbor and led the new Wolverines to play impressive basketball.

This Michigan team’s greatest strength was its defense; The Wolverines rank 5th nationally in defensive efficiency and are experts at wearing down teams on that side of the ball. Michigan’s defensive strength starts with long possession times when other teams have the ball – against the Wolverines, who are ranked 343rd nationally, opponents average 18.6 seconds per possession on offense.

Michigan was also very good at forcing turnovers (23.3% of opponents’ possessions, 14th) and getting completely out of control when defending shots; The Wolverines allowed just 41.6% effective FG percentage to their opponents this year, seventh-best nationally. The latter statistic isn’t all that surprising considering the Wolverines regularly use three players 6-foot-10 or taller for 15 minutes or more per game. The Wolverines have been absolutely formidable in the frontcourt this season.

The Wolverines were stingy behind the arc, allowing opponents just 28.4% of 3-point attempts (43), but were next best in blocking shots inside the arc. Opponents are making just 41.0% of 2-point attempts this season (7th), which again isn’t a surprise when teams regularly face two 7-footers on the roster. Michigan blocked a shot on 14.3% of opponent possessions (29th) and forced a non-steal turnover on 12.6% of opponent possessions (3rd).

While Michigan has been excellent on defense this season, the Wolverines haven’t exactly been bad on offense either. Michigan ranks 44th in offensive efficiency, with an effective FG% of 57.1% (26th) and an offensive rebound percentage of 36.7% (30th). The Wolverines shot 58.8% from inside the three-point line (25th) and 36.7% from deep (69th).

That interior size makes it particularly difficult for them to defend as the Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery noted in his pre-game comments. “They’re big but also versatile, especially Danny Wolf,” he said. “He is a unique player when it comes to moving almost a point forward. (He) plays point guard most of the time and gives them a lot of flexibility, especially in the running game. But they can also hurt you deep down.”

Versatility and a varied offensive attack are definitely the need of the hour for the Michigan offense. No one is averaging more than 12.0 ppg, but all five MIchigan starters are averaging double figures in scoring (though G Nimari Burnett is technically at 9.8 ppg). This starting lineup is almost entirely new — only Burnett was at Michigan last season — and Wolf is a Michigan native YaleTre Donaldson transferred from Auburn, Roddy Gayle transferred to Michigan from Ohio State and Vladislav Goldin arrived from Florida Atlantic in May – but they’ve come together quickly this season.

In addition to the balanced scoring attack, Michigan’s offense also features a lot of ball movement and uses multiple playmakers to initiate the offense; Three different players are averaging at least 3.0 assists per game for Michigan this year. Wolf is one of those three, earning an average of 3.1 dimes per game while logging plenty of minutes as a point forward or de facto point guard for the Wolverines, as McCaffery noted.

“(Wolf is) a really good passer, so they have some high-low action,” he noted. “(Wolf and Goldin are) both veterans. You don’t see a lot of pick-and-rolls with two 7-footers, but they execute it really well.”

Goldin, Michigan’s other 7-foot starter, is averaging 11.0 ppg and 4.8 rpg compared to Wolf’s 12.0 ppg and 9.5 rpg. Sam Walters, the third player, averages 15 minutes per game and scores 6.1 points per game and 1.9 points per game. Controlling Michigan’s post presence will be a big challenge for Iowa on Saturday.

Gayle (11.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg and 3.3 apg) and Donaldson (11.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg and 3.9 apg) have given Michigan a strong one-two punch in the backfield and on the wings. They can score at multiple levels and have been two of Michigan’s better three-point shooters this season (39.1% for Gayle, 43.3% for Donaldson). Burnett has also long been a weapon for the Wolverines; This season he is shooting a team-high 47.2% from behind the arc.

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Michigan’s size (ranked 7th nationally) presents Iowa with so many matchup challenges that even if the Hawkeyes were to go into this game at full strength, winning this game would look like a daunting task for the Hawkeyes. Without Traore or Koch, the Hawkeyes have even fewer options in this game.

Owen Freeman, Ladji Dembele, Riley Mulvey and Even Braun’s will have their hands full trying to keep Wolf, Goldin and Walters somewhat under control. Iowa may need all 20 fouls the quartet has combined. This has the makings of a game where Iowa will have to click from deep to have a chance of winning; The Hawkeyes went 9 of 23 from long range in their win over Northwestern earlier this week; It looks like they’ll probably need to do even better shooting from distance to secure a second Big Ten win on Saturday.

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