Lightweights

Chase Hooper (14-3-1, 6-3 UFC) vs. Clay Guida (38-24, 18-18 UFC)

OPPORTUNITIES: Hooper (-1150), Guida (+650)

Guida remains. It’s now been over 18 years since “The Carpenter” made his UFC debut and about 13 years since his peak, but even though he’s slowed down several degrees, Guida has done an amazing job of staying consistently tough. At the turn of the 2010s, Guida’s ability to set a pace was unmatched. This, combined with his extreme endurance and tenacious wrestling game, made Guida one of the most frustrating challenges in the sport, as opponents who could beat him still had to endure multiple rounds of absolute hell. Guida has continued to slow down as the overall pace of the sport has quickened, but the durability and gas tank remain robust. Guida isn’t even a particularly strong wrestler anymore, but his sheer persistence in trying things while refusing to give up has led to some surprisingly competitive and entertaining matches, even if he does suffer about two losses for every win. In an amusing matchmaking, one of the most experienced lightweights in the UFC takes on the eternally youthful Hooper, who at 25 is no longer a prodigy but has developed into a solid young talent.

Hooper made a name for himself as a lanky and skilled wrestler whose defensive weakness was clearly a disadvantage, but after taking some hard hits through the sheer endurance of his youth, “The Dream” emerged as a surprisingly effective fighter on the other side. Hooper still doesn’t have much defense in his game, but he has at least learned to strike with confidence. Add to that his long frame and the threat of his combat, and it was enough to overwhelm opponents who should theoretically be able to return fire. See Viacheslav Borshchev, who was overrun and subdued by Hooper in May. Guida’s submission defense was always a liability, even at his peak, so this seems like a pretty clean setup for a Hooper win. Even if he can’t stun Guida enough to cause a complete stoppage with racket and substitute, there’s enough of this fight going on on the mat that Hooper can find something effective enough to end it. The choice falls on Hooper via submission in the first round.

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