Lightweights

Joel Alvarez (21-3, 6-2 UFC) vs. Drakkar Klose (15-2-1, 9-2 UFC)

OPPORTUNITIES: Alvarez (-395), Klose (+310)

Two underrated lightweights engage in perhaps the best fitting fight in the world. Alvarez has been a clear overachiever since his UFC debut in 2019, as “El Fenomeno” didn’t have particularly high expectations after enduring poor competition in his home country of Spain. That thought was only reinforced by a flat UFC debut against Damir Ismagulov, but it turned out that Ismagulov was one of the few opponents who could handle Alvarez’s game. A gigantic lightweight standing at 6’3″, Alvarez combines a powerful striking game with aggressive grappling skills, typically forcing his opponents to grapple with one or the other while always avoiding danger. Ismagulov had the practiced jab to neutralize the Spaniard from a distance and make the ground game a non-factor, but so far Alvarez’s only other defeat in the UFC came at the hands of Arman Tsarukyan, who took the complete opposite route and was capable , asserting his defense on the mat. Aside from those two fights, each against an elite specialist and one of the best lightweights in the world, opponents simply had no idea how to effectively tackle Alvarez. Aggressive opponents rushed into the teeth of Alvarez’s venomous confrontations, while more patient opponents just gave him the initiative to mount an effective offensive. It will be a difficult puzzle for Klose to solve, but given his status as one of the UFC’s most underrated fighters, perhaps he could pull it off.

Klose came to the UFC in 2017 and was also short on hype, but a win over Marc Diakiese quickly established him as a potential talent killer, even if his clinch-heavy approach wasn’t always exciting. Klose finally rounded out his game by appearing to be ready for contender status by 2020, and his fight against Beneil Dariush was a huge success that was, to say the least, memorable. However, a large part of this was due to Dariush’s stunning, violent comeback, which resulted in Klose suffering a knockout loss. Klose then experienced a few difficult years and lost whatever momentum he had left. Jeremy Stephens pushed him during a promotional weigh-in, putting him on the field due to whiplash, and while Klose looked solid in a few rematches, he then missed another year due to injury. Klose announced himself in great fashion in his latest comeback, capping off 2023 with a particularly brutal slam knockout of Joe Solecki. In May, he picked up another solid win over Joaquim Silva, quietly securing his fourth win in a row. Klose may have the right combination of skill and strength to neutralize the constant threat the Bandog Fight Club representative brings over three rounds, but Alvarez’s approach still appears to be a winning formula. At least he should be able to win over Klose for every little control. Klose was also tired in some of his tougher battles, which could mean the death knell down the stretch. The choice falls on Alvarez via submission in the third round.

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