• QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers — under 0.5 interceptions: The Chargers’ signal-caller has been a fireworks display over the past five games, posting the NFL’s highest passing grade (93.4) ​​since Week 7. In that span, Herbert has made a league-leading 17 big throws while making just two turnover-worthy plays.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Game overview

The primetime lights of Monday Night Football will shine in the third episode of the Harbaugh Bowl as Jim’s Chargers Hosted by John’s Ravens. Historically, this matchup has favored big brother John, who has a 2-0 record both straight and against the spread.

However, these games took place over a decade ago, and this time the stakes are just as high but take a different form. Both teams are fighting for a place in the AFC playoffs and are currently clinging to a wildcard spot.

Jim Harbaugh positioned his Chargers for success both on the field and in the betting markets. Los Angeles boasts a top-five coverage rate (70%) in the NFL, with a 5-1 record against the spread (ATS) since early October and an undefeated 4-0-1 ATS record at home this season .

On the other hand, that is Ravens have stalled recently and delivered less favorable betting results. Baltimore is 1-3 ATS since Week 8, including losses in their last two road games, which they entered as favorites.

Despite this, Baltimore still boasts the league’s top-rated offense (88.1) this season and leads in EPA per game, even if their recent performance has been disappointing. To avoid another lackluster showing against a Chargers The defense, which ranks third in the league per game per game per EPA, will need strong performances from Baltimore Lamar Jackson And Derrick Henrywho have their worst-rated games of the season behind them.

That could prove to be a challenge given the situation Chargers‘ Offensive firepower in recent weeks. Since the beginning of November, Los Angeles has posted the NFL’s third-highest offensive grade (80.3), powered by Justin Herbert‘s extraordinary game.

QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: Under 0.5 interceptions (+109)

The Chargers’ signal-caller has been a fireworks display over the past five games, posting the NFL’s highest passing grade (93.4) ​​since Week 7. In that span, Herbert has made a league-leading 17 big throws while making just two turnover-worthy plays. Despite having a potential interception taken away from him in Week 11, he has otherwise avoided turnover-producing plays since Week 6 and hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 2.

Baltimore’s coverage unit has struggled this season. She ranks in the bottom third of the league in EPA per pass allowed and has a team coverage grade of just 59.0. Interceptions were hard to come by as the team recorded just seven picks in 491 coverage snaps – below the league average. To make matters worse, Baltimore leads the NFL with eight missed interceptions.