The Pittsburgh Steelers are limping into the postseason with three straight losses and Russell Wilson & Co. have gone cold at the worst possible time.

After checking out the latest Russell Wilson odds ahead of their clash against the Cincinnati Bengals, I’ll put any expectations of a top-notch performance from the veteran to the back of my mind in my top NFL picks for Saturday, January 4th.

Selection of Russell Wilson’s player props

Click on each selection to jump to the full analysis.

Russell Wilson’s prop man

My best choice
Russell Wilson under 228.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)

My analysis

While Russell Wilson rushed for 414 yards and three scores in his last game against the Cincinnati Bengals, there are several reasons why we should nitpick his performance this weekend.

If anything, that previous performance has proven to be a massive outlier, as the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback hasn’t thrown for more than 217 yards in any of his last four games. In fact, Wilson was unable to complete more than 66.7% of his passes in any of those games, including averaging just 6.6 yards per pass attempt or less in each of those games.

Although Wilson is still capable of making some big plays, especially against leading wide receiver George Pickens, those deep hits have been rare in recent weeks. And while the Bengals have some notable issues defending the passing game, nothing Wilson has shown over the last month suggests the Steelers will look to exploit that instead of relying on their run-first offense.

Additionally, the Baltimore Ravens will most likely have already beaten the Cleveland Browns before the game begins, meaning Pittsburgh will already know that it cannot win the AFC North or win a home game in the first round of the playoffs.

That doesn’t mean Wilson won’t play, as Pittsburgh wants to continue playing for the seed (and possibly avoid playing Baltimore in the first round). However, this means the Steelers will likely be cautious with their veteran quarterback and other key players.

Any minor injury or sign of distress – or a play that gets out of control one way or another – could result in Wilson or some of his key targets being eliminated from the game. The possibility of the situation changing for the Steelers presents nothing other than a downside risk, so I expect Wilson to land below his range.

More Bengals vs. Steelers picks from Covers

Russell Wilson’s parlay in the same game

Russell Wilson under 228.5 yards

Russell Wilson Over 0.5 interceptions

Bengals money line

As part of his recent poor play, Wilson has thrown picks in each of his last two games. Although Cincinnati may not be able to defend the pass well, they have forced 15 interceptions this year, making them one of the top teams in the league when it comes to forcing turnovers in the air game.

Since my expectations for Wilson are low, the Bengals will probably win this game. Joe Burrow has Cincinnati firing on all cylinders on offense, and despite what happened in their last meeting, it’s hard to imagine Wilson and the Steelers being able to keep up with the Bengals in an ongoing shootout.

To make this game even simpler, the Bengals have won four straight games prior to this game, while the Steelers have lost three in a row. Cincinnati won’t know their fate when they play, so we know they’ll still be motivated to win.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

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