It wasn’t that long ago that Russell Wilson was an albatross for the Denver Broncos and they benched him to avoid paying him more money in the future. Now, after an enjoyable season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Wilson is ready to make money again.

Wilson is already the fourth-highest paid player in NFL history and even a mediocre deal would allow him to pass Tom Brady for third on the list.

But how do you determine the market value of Wilson, a player who was paid the league minimum salary by the Steelers in 2024 while his former team footed the bill? Do you terminate his previous contract that the Broncos were willing to give up just to get rid of him, or do you do something else?

Comparable caps for a new Russell Wilson contract

Let’s start with Wilson’s age. The QB just turned 36 this season, so he won’t be signing a long-term contract extension at the top of the market like guys in their 20s have done in recent offseasons. He’s more in line with the Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins ​​deals. None of them are in the top 10 in terms of average compensation per year.

Russell Wilson’s deal for 2022

• Age at signing: 34
• Duration: Five years
• Average money: $48.5 million per season
• Fully Guaranteed: $124 million (first three seasons)
• Additional information: Broncos also sent trade compensation to the Seahawks
• 2021 Stats: 64.8% completions, 7.8 yards per attempt, 222.4 yards per game, 103.1 rating (Pro Bowl)

Matthew Stafford’s deal for 2022

• Age at signing: 34
• Duration: Four years
• Average Money: $40 million/season ($44.5 million/year in the first two seasons)
• Fully Guaranteed: $63 million ($89 million in the first two years)
• Additional information: $57 million rolling guarantee in the 2023 offseason for the 2024 season
• 2021 Stats: 67% completions, 8.1 yards per attempt, 287.4 yards per game, 102.8 rating

Aaron Rodgers’ contract for 2023

• Age at signing: 39
• Duration: Three years
• Average money: $37.5 million per season
• Fully guaranteed: $75 million (first two years)
• Additional information: Jets had to send trade compensation to Green Bay
• 2022 Stats: 64.6% completions, 6.8 yards per attempt, 217.4 yards per game, 91.1 rating (MVP in 2020 and 2021)

Kirk Cousins’ deal for 2024

• Age at start of season: 36
• Duration: Four years
• Average money: $45 million per season
• Fully guaranteed: $90 million (first two years)
• Additional information: Was the only one of the three to sign as a free agent
• 2023 Stats: 69.5% completions, 7.5 yards per attempt, 291.4 yards per game, 103.8 rating (only played 8 games due to Achilles tendon injury)

Current numbers from Russell Wilson

• Age at signing: 36
• 2024 stats (as of this writing): 64.7% completions, 8.1 yards per attempt, 239 yards per game, 103 rating

Possible insights from the four contracts

Wilson’s 2024 numbers are consistent with other senior quarterbacks. So when you put those four contract details together, you’re looking at two guaranteed years at around $40-45 million per year with a team option year or two at the end. On average, it could be a little higher since Wilson, like Cousins, may hit the free agent market.

Let’s also be clear: the only deal on this list that worked for the team that signed him was the Stafford deal. To get there, the Rams also had to endure a very poor 2022 season.

Comparable floors for a new Russell Wilson contract

Wilson is signed to start somewhere, so the ultra-low dollars are off the table. That puts his absolute floor at Jacoby Brissett Bridge’s quarterback level at $8 million, but we won’t even say that because it’s unrealistically low.

Geno Smith’s deal for 2023

• Age at signing: 33
• Duration: Three years
• Average money: $25 million per season
• Fully Guaranteed: $27.3 million (first year only)
• Additional information: Played in Seattle in 2022 on a one-year, $3.5 million contract.
• 2022 Stats: 69.8% completions, 7.5 yards per attempt, 251.9 yards per game, 100.9 rating

Kirk Cousins’ deal for 2022

• Age at start of season: 36
• Length: One season
• Average money: $35 million per season
• Fully Guaranteed: $35 million
• Additional information: He was already under contract for 2022, so this contract added a fully guaranteed year in 2023, reportedly making it a two-year deal with $70 million fully guaranteed.
• 2021 Stats: 66.3% completions, 7.5 yards per attempt, 263.8 yards per game, 103.1 rating (Pro Bowl)

Possible insights from the two contracts

Smith, who completed his own reclamation project in Seattle, wanted to stick around in 2023, especially because there was ample opportunity for teams to select QBs in the NFL Draft. Three of the top four picks were quarterbacks, while another went at No. 33 overall. This firmly established the middle class of quarterbacks, a position that Baker Mayfield later joined, even though he is much younger.

The Cousins ​​deal meant he wasn’t a true free agent and was looking for several years of fully guaranteed money. A two-year, $70 million deal for Wilson would probably make the new team pretty happy.

That puts the absolute floor on Wilson the Smith’s contract at $25 million per season, but given Wilson’s much more established track record, I think it’s reasonable to assume he’ll at least make Cousins/Vikings money.

What will the quarterback market look like?

The QB market this offseason will be absolutely fascinating.

Which teams could be on the starting QB need list?

Let’s say the 49ers are okay with keeping Brock Purdy despite his down year, and the Panthers stick with the glimpses they’ve seen from Bryce Young. Aaron Rodgers has said he wants to be back and with the Jets, but their situation is so uncertain that I want to keep them here.

2025 NFL Draft prospects at quarterback

In 2024, the NFL Draft had several players taken in the top 12, but in 2025, the NFL Draft looks pretty thin. Only one QB may be taken in the first round. So if teams want a new quarterback, they have to look at free agents.

With six teams looking for a starting quarterback and an NFL Draft prospect capable of filling that role (and the argument is that he needs some experience anyway).

2025 NFL free agent quarterbacks class

In addition to Wilson, there will be at least some competition in the free agent market. If the Jets need a quarterback, Aaron Rodgers would theoretically be available after a release, so we’ll use him here. You can find some really interesting entry-level options here.

Here are the current free agents plus Rodgers:

• Aaron Rodgers
• Sam Darnold
• Justin Fields
• Joe Flacco
• Jameis Winston
• Jimmy Garoppolo

In addition to Bryce Young, Gardner Minshew or Aiden O’Connell, you could also see a Kirk Cousins ​​on the trade market.

Who would you take over on this list with the way Wilson has played in 2024? The list likely begins and ends with Darnold in Minnesota’s QB-friendly system with three outstanding receiving weapons and a running game.

Contract prediction for Russell Wilson in the 2025 offseason

Three years, $135 million
Includes a two-year, $95 million warranty

That’s more than I expected when I started writing this article, but I think the lack of mid-tier starters in the draft and free agent markets will work in Wilson’s favor and he’ll be the best will be the best.

The Steelers have plenty of room to make this happen because they prepared their roster for an eventual Kenny Pickett extension after drafting him high, and then they paid Wilson just $1.2 million in 2024. If these two teams can come together linguistically, it feels like a no-brainer.

Wilson visited the Giants in the 2024 offseason and if Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen get another year, they want an established starter. The same goes for Tom Telesco and the Las Vegas Raiders, although they may have a longer time horizon for despair as Tom Brady takes on an organizational role.

The $95 million guaranteed would ultimately give him more than $400 million for his career and place him at least third on the career list behind Rodgers and Stafford. Cousins ​​is hot on his trail at the moment.

It’s clear he’ll have suitors this offseason and cash in on them.