PFF breaks down Week 16 Monday Night Football Check out both teams’ records, key trends and match overview before placing your best bet, powered by PFF’s proven betting model.

New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers (-13.5) (Total: 42.5)

Game overview

Week 16 ends with an NFC matchup that has more playoff implications than it first appears. Despite being eliminated from Wild Card contention, the Saints still have slim hopes of capturing the NFC South and will need to prevail and gain significant support. Meanwhile, the Packers are aiming to secure their spot in the playoffs with a win or a draw, even as they remain on the fringes of the NFC North title race.

The Packers have been on an impressive run since returning from their bye in Week 11, posting a 3-1-1 record against the team in that span. However, their ATS overall record of 7-6-1 will be put to its toughest test yet this season as they haven’t seen a spread of more than a touchdown all year.

Green Bay has been firing on all cylinders since Week 11, earning a top eight overall grades on both offense (83.3) and defense (71.9). The Packers have outscored their opponents by 13 or more points in three of their last five games, including a dominant road win Seattle last week.

The Saints, meanwhile, face an uphill battle as they navigate the uncertainty at quarterback. Last week, New Orleans reached out Jake Haener about beginners Spencer Rattlera decision that proved costly. Haener managed just 38 net yards of offense in the first half before being substituted for Rattler, who nearly staged a comeback. Rattler was named the starter for this week’s game.

While Rattler helped the Saints secure a back door Washingtonhe has not been successful in the betting markets during his limited starts this season. In his starts from Weeks 6 to 8, the fifth-round rookie went 0-3 ATS.

Adding to the Saints’ challenges is that the team has struggled on the road, posting an ATS record of 2-4 on the road in New Orleans this season. Their last road covering took place in September.

RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: Over 21.5 carries (-105)

At first glance, 21.5 carries seems like a high hurdle to overcome, but Josh Jacobs was the epitome of a workhorse back. Since returning from her bye in Week 11, Jacobs has recorded 107 carries, accounting for 74.3% of the Raiders’ designed runs.

Although he has only exceeded this limit twice in his last five games, the match clearly speaks in his favor. The Saints struggled to stop the run all season, posting the second-worst team run defense grade in the league (46.7).

To compound its woes, New Orleans’ offense is searching for answers after losing its last reliable playmaker. Alvin Kamara. With options to carry the load limited, the Saints will have to struggle to find consistency.

Add to that the snowy conditions in Green Bay, and the game script calls for Jacobs to be heavily involved from the start.