Scenarios for Los Angeles to win NFC West

The Los Angeles Rams started the season slowly, going just 1-4 through the first five weeks.

But as is often the case under Sean McVay, the Rams heat up as the season progresses. In Week 17, they defeated the Arizona Cardinals to secure their fifth straight win NFC West.

The Rams are in control of their own destiny heading into Week 18, but may not even need to win their final game to win the division. Depending on the results of the remaining games in Week 17, Los Angeles could already be guaranteed a place in the NFL playoffs as NFC West champions.

What do the Rams need to happen to win the NFC West? Here’s what you should know about their playoff chances after their win over the Cardinals.

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Rams playoff chances

According to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model, the Rams have a better than 99% chance of making the playoffs after their win over the Cardinals. They also have a 99 percent chance of winning the NFC West against the Seattle Seahawks.

Rams playoff odds

Oddsmakers agree with The Athletic’s assessment of the Rams’ postseason chances. Sportsbooks do not list Los Angeles’ postseason odds or NFC West odds for Sunday’s Week 17 action.

That means the books have the Rams close to a playoff spot — and likely the NFC West title.

What needs to happen for the Rams to make the playoffs?

The Rams can make the playoffs in Week 17 if they beat the Seahawks in a tiebreaker. To do this, three of the following teams would have to win their games:

The Rams can also win the NFC West if two of the above teams win and there is a tie once.

If the Rams fail to win the strength of victory tiebreaker in Week 17, they can clinch the division in Week 18 with one of the following results:

Rams win against Seahawks;
Rams tie with Seahawks;
The Rams lose to the Seahawks and win the strength of victory tiebreaker based on Week 18 results.

With that in mind, the Rams are likely to win the NFC West, be it in Week 17 or Week 18.

What is the strength of the win tiebreaker?

The NFL’s win strength tiebreaker represents the overall record of opponents a team has beaten. It is the fifth tiebreaker the league uses, after head-to-head games, division games, shared games and conference games.

This is important because the Rams and Seahawks would all play their first four tiebreakers even if Seattle beats Los Angeles in Week 18. However, if the Rams take the strength-of-win tiebreaker, they are guaranteed to finish ahead of the Seahawks regardless of the week’s 18 score, as Los Angeles will finish with a record as good or better than Seattle’s.

Below is a look at the winning percentage of the Rams and Seahawks entering play on Sunday, December 29th:

Rams remaining schedule

If the Rams don’t reach the strength of the tiebreaker in Week 17, they can make it meaningless in Week 18 by beating the Seahawks outright. The division rivals face off in Week 18.

Los Angeles beat Seattle 26-20 in overtime in their first meeting of the season in Week 9.

Below is the Rams’ remaining schedule:

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Rams potential playoff opponent

If the Rams win the NFC West, they will be either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the NFC. This means they have a tough fight ahead of them against one of the following opponents:

The Rams are ahead of the No. 3 seed and can finish the game with a win. That would put them against the No. 6 seed, which is expected to be the Packers, who will compete in Week 17.

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NFL playoff picture week 17

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winner, No. 1 seed)*
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winner)*
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winner)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, Wild Card No. 1)*
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, Wild Card No. 2)*
Denver Broncos (9-7, Wild Card No. 3)

On the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).

NFC

Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (13-2, Wild Card No. 1)*
Green Bay Packers (11-4, Wild Card No. 2)
Washington Commanders (10-5, Wildcard No. 3)

On the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

An asterisk

denotes teams that have secured a spot in the playoffs. Teams that won division titles are marked accordingly.

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Scenarios for Los Angeles to win NFC West

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