Scoot Henderson entered the NBA with sky-high expectations as the Trail Blazers’ No. 3 overall pick in 2023. Portland’s decision to use its No. 3 pick to fuel its rebuild rather than trading him away to get Damian Lillard more immediate help was probably the right call.

But did Henderson get drafted? There are a few players Portland should have chosen instead of Henderson, most notably Houston’s Amen Thompson. However, that doesn’t mean we can definitively say that Henderson is a bust yet.

Things didn’t go according to plan, but he’s only 20 years old and still trying to play the toughest position to learn in the league. Scoot’s stats don’t stand out as someone who is constantly improving. In his rookie season, he averaged 14.0 points, 5.4 assists, 3.1 rebounds and 0.8 steals on 39/33/82 shooting splits.

Almost halfway through his second year, these numbers look very similar, except for his scoring, which has taken a dip. Scoot is averaging 10.9 points, 5.0 assists, 2.9 rebounds and 1.1 steals on 40/30/77 shooting splits.

Scoot Henderson is showing subtle signs of progress

Still, overall, this was a better season for Henderson than his rookie year. Henderson is gradually learning to integrate the change of pace into his game, which is necessary for success as a general commander. His decision-making ability has noticeably improved and his turnovers have fallen from 3.4 to 2.7 per game. The eye test suggests that his shot selection has also gotten better, as Scoot doesn’t seem to be forcing reckless shots as often anymore.

Even though Henderson’s scoring rate has declined this season, that’s more of a Portland problem than a Scoot problem, as his role and opportunities have declined since last season. As a rookie, Henderson had a usage rate of 26.0 percent with an average time of 28.5 minutes. His usage rate has fallen to 21.3 percent this season and his playing time has fallen to 25.7 minutes per game.

Since entering the league, his ability to drive downhill and attack the opponent has been touted. With 12.7 drives, Scoot is only 0.2 behind Anthony Edwards and ahead of several superstars, most notably Giannis Antetokounmpo and Devin Booker. Scoot is shooting 46.2 percent from the field on these drives, putting him ahead of players like Edwards, Tyrese Maxey and Stephen Curry. Those are select names, but the point is that Henderson’s lack of finishing is blown out of proportion.

Areas where Henderson needs to improve to avoid bust status

However, the areas where Henderson needs to improve significantly to avoid bust status are his shooting and defense. It’s extremely difficult to be an effective guard in the modern NBA if you can’t shoot or defend. For comparison, the league’s average three-point percentage for point guards is 35.0 percent, so Scoot still has a ways to go in that regard.

His defense also continues to be a major liability, with Henderson ranking near the bottom of the league in several key player defensive stats. Henderson is getting better at using his athleticism in the passing lanes. He’s still figuring out how to defend effectively in pick-and-roll situations, which is concerning considering how PnR-heavy the league has become.

Henderson has shown subtle signs of progress this season, even if it hasn’t been linear or as significant as some had hoped. The decision on the Blazers’ 20-year-old guard has not yet been made.