Selecting the first 12-team playoff group… who will win it all?

Selecting the first 12-team playoff group… who will win it all?

Hey, what’s the best thing about the NCAA tournament? Fill out a bracket and pretend you are the mastermind of the chaos.

Ergo: The best part of the 12-team College Football Playoff will be filling out a field and pretending you’re the mastermind of the chaos. Phew.

This is what we can now do annually. Luckily for us, the first round byes will probably keep us all from breaking our braces on day one.

Since I wasn’t so lucky, I’m willing to share my opinion with you, readers of this column. This definitely won’t bite me again.

Here’s how I see the 2024 College Football Playoff play out:

First round

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas

Winner – Texas

It’s not like Clemson will be eliminated against a Texas offense that was a little more mediocre than an 11-2 record would suggest. But Cade Klubnik against this Texas defense is the most troubling matchup. Georgia may have had brief successes with Gunner Stockton as a more mobile quarterback, but many will remember what the Longhorns and their No. 1 pass defense did to Marcel Reed at Texas A&M. They suggested a shutout. Texas wins a low-scoring game.

No. 9 Tennessee and No. 8 Ohio State

Winner – Ohio State

If I knew we were going to get a healthy version of Tennessee, my mindset would be different. But after the spate of injuries to skill players in the Vanderbilt game, I’m skeptical that the Vols will have any luck in this regard. And while Ohio State faces injuries on offense, the Buckeyes can do enough defensively to frustrate Nico Iamaleava and take advantage of some short fields.

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State

winner – Penn State

If you close your eyes, you can imagine Penn State winning by three touchdowns and hear Alabama fans claim they fought better…even though the Tide lost three of four SEC road games. Drew Allar continues to make progress and Penn State is fortunate to have some offensive versatility to go against SMU’s formidable run defense.

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame

Winner – Notre Dame

We saw Indiana struggle against the two best defenses it faced. With all due respect to a Michigan defense without Will Johnson and an Ohio State defense led by Caleb Downs, Notre Dame has an even better secondary. This unit is more than capable of making Kurtis Rourke pay. The Irish don’t give it quite as much gas as Ohio State did against Indiana, but a 27-20 win in the Hoosier State goes to the home team.

Quarterfinals

No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State (Peach Bowl)

Winner – Texas

I have more confidence in the Texas defense than any other unit in this playoff field. Even in those Georgia losses, this group was by no means a pushover. In those contests, he allowed 4 yards/play, which is exactly what he allowed all year. This is significant compared to the one-two punch of Cam Skattebo and Sam Leavitt. Texas finds a way to continue that efficiency to the point where they pull off a 27-24 thriller with a Bert Auburn walk-off field goal…in the same building where Texas won in the SEC Championship by a walk-off lost to Georgia.

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon (Rose Bowl)

Winner – Ohio State

Beating a team twice is incredibly difficult. Even harder is beating a team that might embrace the “us against the world” mentality in a very uncharacteristic, non-Ohio State-esque way. Instead of Oregon looking like a rested team, it is (ironically) facing a Chip Kelly-led attack that is finding a balance that Oregon hasn’t struggled with all year. Instead of Will Howard running out the clock to attempt a comeback, he gets redemption with a 2-minute drive for the ages that sends Ohio State to the semifinals.

No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State (Fiesta Bowl)

Winner – Boise State

It’s not just the Ashton Jeanty show. Boise State has an opportunistic defense that thrives in the backfield. It can overwhelm quarterbacks with the pressure it creates. This will be one of the most frustrating days of Allar’s career. Instead of taking advantage of a unit that was a little more vulnerable against the pass, Boise State looks like a team that did nothing but use the extra time to put together the right pressure packages to frustrate Penn State. And of course Jeanty does the rest.

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (Sugar Bowl)

Winner – Georgia

No matter who plays quarterback for UGA, I would be terrified of this matchup against the Notre Dame secondary. That should benefit the Irish. How is Georgia asserting itself? After Notre Dame builds a 2-point lead, Georgia does what it has always done in this strange season: settles down and finds a way. Thanks to several goals from Trevor Etienne, a 17:3 deficit turned into a 20:17 victory. UGA beats Notre Dame for the third time in the playoff era.

Semifinals

No. 5 Texas vs. No. 8 Ohio State

Winner – Texas

Quinn Ewers’ Revenge Game! Well, sort of. Ewers doesn’t necessarily shine against Ohio State’s defense. Multiple turnovers led Steve Sarkisian to turn to Arch Manning midway through the third quarter. And what does Manning do? He leads Texas in a comeback to erase a 21-10 deficit. Two Manning touchdown drives stun Ohio State, which thought it was in the clear after beating Oregon. Texas reaches the level it narrowly missed last year.

No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 2 Georgia

Winner – Georgia

There is a world in which UGA’s run defense looks like it did at points late in the season, and Jeanty is too much for the Dawgs and their inconsistent style. But on this stage, it would be foolish not to trust Kirby Smart. A well-rested Georgian defense delivers an impressive performance. For the first time this year, Jeanty is unable to achieve this groundbreaking performance in the long run. Georgia, meanwhile, is finding holes in Boise State’s secondary and is finally putting together an impressive performance from its throwing pass-catchers. Dawgs end year-long losing streak and return to a title game.

championship

No. 5 Texas vs. No. 2 Georgia (Mercedes Benz Stadium)

Winner – Georgia

Yes, let’s go over it again. What’s the only thing harder than beating a team twice? Beat a team three times. But Smart has Sarkisian’s number. Even after Manning’s brilliant performance in the semifinals, the Texas offense continues to struggle to maintain scoring opportunities against Georgia. Once again, the UGA defensive front and Etienne are doing the heavy lifting. It’s not quite the performance that the Austin game was, nor is it quite as bizarre as the SEC Championship, but that doesn’t matter. A pair of pick-sixes, including one from Ewers’ boogeyman Daylen Everette, make the difference. The Dawgs are doing it again somehow.

A dynasty? Absolutely.

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