Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) welterweight talent Shawkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Garry will collide this weekend (Sat., Dec. 7, 2024) at UFC 310 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

As a fan of both Alexandre Pantoja And Kai AsakuraI admit that Rakhmonov vs. Garry still feels like the pay-per-view (PPV) main event of UFC 310. Shavkat versus Belal Muhammad was, after all, the original headliner (details here), and it’s not like the undefeated Garry is a huge gap from the champion. More specifically, “The Nomad” has this special aura and has been considered a future champion since his Octagon debut. It’s hard to argue with 18 placings and 18 wins, but Garry looks like a legitimate challenge to his unbeaten record. Add in a bit of personal history and sparring drama (check it out), and this is about as intriguing as a non-title fight can get.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Rakhmonov vs Garry betting odds

• Shavkat Rakhmonov win: -375
• Shavkat Rakhmonov via TKO/KO/DQ: +240
• Shavkat Rakhmonov via submission: +180
• Shavkat Rakhmonov by decision: +275
• Ian Garry win: +295
• Ian Garry via TKO/KO/DQ: +650
• Ian Garry via submission: +3000
• Ian Garry on decision: +650
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Rakhmonov wins

Rakhmonov is so exciting because he is an equally brutal finisher both on the ground and on the feet. A large and physical welterweight, Rakhmonov pushes a brutal pace, bullying his opponents and crushing them en route to usually quick finishes.

I have no doubt that Rakhmonov can win this fight on the feet. He is the bigger hitter, can match Garry’s range and is much more vicious from the inside. Garry will likely try to pin him with kicks from a distance and then counter his offense, but Rakhmonov is an excellent kicker in his own right and can build combinations into punishing clinch offenses.

Still, it would be silly if Rakhmonov didn’t confuse this with takedowns. He does his best wrestling against the fence and wants to go the distance with The Future anyway, so focusing on ring cutting will really pay off for the Kazakh star. If he can interrupt Garry’s lateral movement with kicks, the Irish talent will end up being forced to defend close-range combinations or takedowns.

Either way, Rakhmonov is at the wheel.

How Garry wins

Garry is really skilled for a relatively young prospect. After all, he’s only been a professional for five years, but he’s managed to develop a very clever southpaw attack technique. When he is unsettled by a more skilled striker Michael PageGarry was able to switch up his usual approach with well-timed clinch takedowns and back takes.

It was intelligent work by the young people.

The odds are stacked against him, but Garry has a path to victory. He is a sharp counter-puncher, and although cries of “Shavkat has no defense!” are exaggerated, he is an aggressive fighter. Getting that many finishes requires taking risks, and that means Garry has the opportunity to land and change the course of the fight.

There are two adjustments Garry needs to make. First of all, Garry can’t be afraid to talk to Rakhmonov. He doesn’t want to do it often, but Garry needs to assert himself often enough to be a real threat in the pocket. Otherwise, Rakhmonov will be able to force him into attacks and knockdowns.

Linear recordings also appear to be in a major key. Side kicks to the knee, middle tees, the intercepting knee – all of these punches can interrupt Rakhmonov’s offense before it begins, which is crucial if Garry is not to be bullied.

Rakhmonov vs Garry prediction

There is no welterweight on the roster that I would choose over Rakhmonov.

I’m not saying “Nomad” is untouchable. He’s a risk taker… and it’s going to cost him at some point. At the moment, however, the 30-year-old finisher is at the absolute peak of his abilities. He is extremely skilled, very durable, and brutally effective when it comes to ending fights quickly. He constantly forces his opponents to hack – there’s a reason only two of his 18 opponents even made it to the third round.

Garry will definitely have to excite Rakhmonov or fight perfectly for a very long time to pull off the upset. It’s much more likely that Rakhmonov works him over with kicks and knees, gets the takedown and beats his opponent to another tapout victory.

Prediction: Rakhmonov via submission (+180)

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Remember that MMAmania.com delivers LIVE round-by-round and blow-by-blow coverage of the entire area UFC 310 fight card Right Herestarting with the early one ESPN+ Online preliminary round games, which are scheduled to start at 6pm ET (Simultaneously broadcast on ESPN2 at 8pm ET), before the start time of the pay-per-view (PPV) main card 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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