MINNEAPOLIS – There was perhaps no more surprising team in the NFL this season as the Minnesota Vikings.

With the departure of Kirk Cousinsthe arrival of Sam DarnoldMany expected this to be a rebuilding year for Minnesota, an overhaul of the defense and a strong division. Instead, the Vikings are 12-2 and firmly in the race for first place in the NFC standings.

The Detroit Lions, also 12-2, currently lead the NFC North and are No. 1 thanks to a Week 7 win over the Vikings. The 12-2 Philadelphia Eagles are also fighting for the top spot in the NFC. The NFL currently gives the Vikings an 18% chance of finishing first, with the Eagles at 30% and the Lions at the top with a 52% chance.

So how can the Vikings emerge victorious and secure a bye and home-field advantage? Actually it’s pretty simple.

If the Vikings win their remaining three games, they will be in a good position to secure the No. 1 seed no matter what the Eagles or Lions do.

However, this is a tough argument. Two of their remaining three games are on the road – Seattle in Week 16 and Detroit in Week 18 – and all three are against likely playoff teams (Seahawks, Packers, Lions).

They may get a break against the Seahawks, who may start backup quarterback Sam Howell after starter Geno Smith left the team’s loss to the Packers due to injury.

The Vikings host the Packers at US Bank Stadium I’ve already beaten her on the street this season.

Injuries have completely weakened the Lions’ defense. So if the Vikings offense can score points and the defense can get a few stops, the game won’t be out of reach, even if they’re on Detroit’s home stadium.

With a win, the Vikings would finish at 15-2 and inevitably have a better record than the Lions as the two teams play each other in Week 18. The Lions would finish 14-3 and earn a wild card spot.

If the Eagles also finish 15-2, the No. 1 seed would be eliminated in the tiebreakers, the first of which is a head-to-head matchup. Since the Vikings and Eagles haven’t played each other this season, that doesn’t apply.

Then we go to conference winning percentage. If both teams win, they will finish with identical 10-2 records against the NFC.

We continue with the next question, the winning rate for common games. Philadelphia and Minnesota have four common opponents this season – the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars. Both teams would be 5:1 against common opponents, so the matter is not resolved here either.

Moving on to all-game winning percentage, which simply means the combined record of all teams the Vikings and Eagles have defeated. That’s harder to calculate since there are still three weeks left in the season. While the Eagles currently hold the tiebreaker here, the Vikings will likely come out on top based on their remaining schedule at the end of the season. Minnesota plays the Seattle Seahawks (currently 8-6), Packers (10-4) and Lions (12-2), while Philadelphia plays the Washington Commanders (9-5), Dallas Cowboys (6-8) and Giants (2nd). -2) plays. 12).

That’s a lot of words to express something relatively simple: To have a chance at the No. 1 seed, the Vikings have to win. Sure, there are unlikely scenarios where they could lose a game or two and still finish on top. But head coach Kevin O’Connell’s team is probably thrilled to be in control of its own destiny this late in the season.

It’s already a season for the ages for the Vikings. It remains to be seen how memorable it will be.