S&P 500 and Nasdaq fall as traders scale back interest rate cut bets following new economic data

S&P 500 and Nasdaq fall as traders scale back interest rate cut bets following new economic data

U.S. stocks gave up early gains as cautious investors weighed new economic data amid Nvidia’s (NVDA) big artificial intelligence plans.

The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell around 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell around 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rebounded during the morning session, but was up about 0.2%.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) rose about 7 basis points to just under 4.7%. And bets on when the Federal Reserve will next cut interest rates were also pushed back.

Early Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index suggested that manufacturing continued to expand last month, even as the price paid index rose to a near two-year high of 64.4 from 58.2.

The price increase “causes concern for the Fed as it is consistent with PCE supercore inflation remaining at 3.5% through the middle of next year,” wrote Thomas Ryan, an economist at Capital Economics North America.

“This is a good reminder that the Fed’s fight against inflation is not over, especially in a year when tariffs and immigration restrictions will fuel price pressures again.”

Additionally, job openings at JOLTS increased more than expected in November. There were also fewer hirings compared to the previous month, while the quit rate, a sign of confidence among workers, fell to 1.9% from 2.1% in October.

The data sets the stage for the all-important December jobs report on Friday. In recent days, Fed officials have signaled they would take a more gradual approach to cuts given the resilience of the labor market and persistent inflation.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are now almost certainly betting that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged later this month.

In corporate stocks, Nvidia shares reversed gains, falling around 5% after hitting a record close. In the CES keynote by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on Monday, among other things, a new AI superchip was presented.

Despite Nvidia’s declines, other chip stocks continued their rally, with Micron Technology (MU) gaining about 4% and Asian names gaining.

In the meantime, more clarity is being sought on Donald Trump’s tariff agenda. The president-elect denied a Washington Post report on Monday that his team was considering more targeted measures – which would be more promising for global growth.

LIVE 8 updates

  • Laura Bratton

    Moderna and other vaccine makers surge after bird flu deaths in the US

    Vaccine manufacturers’ inventories rose Tuesday following the first reported bird flu death in the U.S. as well as a surge in COVID-19 cases, according to CDC data.

    Moderna (MRNA) rose nearly 12%. Moderna received $176 million from the U.S. government in July 2024 to advance development of its H5N1 (avian flu) mRNA vaccine, which is in early stages of testing.

    Pfizer (PFE) is also developing an mRNA vaccine against H5N1. Shares of the company rose a more modest 1.4% as of midday Tuesday. Its COVID-19 vaccine partner, BioNTech (BNTX), rose over 5%.

    Meanwhile, German biotech CureVac (CVAC) rose 5.9%. CureVac, in collaboration with Indian pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GLAXO.BO), is developing an mRNA bird flu vaccine that grew just over 1%.

    Vaccine maker Novavax (NVAX) also rose over 10% amid the COVID-19 recovery.

  • Alexandra Canal

    The dollar rises as investors reassess interest rate cuts

    The U.S. dollar (DX=F, DX-Y.NYB) gained on Tuesday, recovering after the currency was on track for a one-week low following reports that President-elect Trump will not commit to an aggressive tariff plan becomes.

    “The dollar gained today after December’s ISM services index (54.1) and job vacancies (8.1 million) came in well above expectations, prompting markets to lower their expectations for Federal Reserve easing to just 33 basis points this year,” Kyle Chapman, FX market analyst at Ballinger Group, wrote in an email.

    “There are two main points driving the dollar higher. “The first is a recovery in labor demand reflected in a sharp increase in job vacancies, and the second is the strongest ISM price index since February 2023,” he said.

    Prices paid in services rose to a near two-year high, suggesting the inflation battle is not yet over. After the data was released, traders reduced their bets on rate cuts, putting the chances of the central bank cutting rates before its June meeting at less than 50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    “It is certainly too early to talk about a re-acceleration in inflation based on this round of data, and markets will take the bigger cues from non-agriculture markets on Friday,” Chapman said. “With the market now firmly positioned for a single rate cut this year, I believe the scope for a pullback on the overly hawkish reassessment of the Fed’s path is increasing.”

  • Alexandra Canal

    Trump announces $20 billion in foreign investment to build new data centers

    President-elect Donald Trump announced a new multibillion-dollar foreign investment to build new data centers in the United States as interest and research in artificial intelligence increases.

    Trump announced Tuesday that Dubai-based Damac Group, backed by billionaire developer Hussain Sajwani, would invest $20 billion in the expansion.

    “They care so much about the country that they want to let people know about it,” the president-elect said during a news conference at Mar-a-Lago. “It’s an honor to have such a great investor.”

    Trump said the investment would be used to create “vast new data centers” across the Midwest and Sunbelt and “keep America at the cutting edge of technology and artificial intelligence.”

    The first phase of the project will begin in a few states including Texas, Arizona, Oklahoma, Michigan and Indiana, among others.

  •     Josh Schafer

    Latest services data shows the battle against inflation is “not over yet”.

    Prices paid in the services sector rose sharply in December, raising concerns about the future path of inflation.

    Data from the Institute of Supply Management showed the price paid index rose to a reading of 64.4 in December, up from 58.2 the previous month. Broadly speaking, activity in the industry also increased, with the ISM services index rising from 53.5 in November to 54.1 in December.

    “The rise in the price paid index from 58.2 to a near two-year high of 64.4 worries the Fed as it is consistent with PCE supercore inflation remaining at 3.5% through the middle of next year.” said Capital Economics North American economist Thomas Ryan wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. “This is a good reminder that the Fed’s fight against inflation is not over, especially in a year when tariffs and immigration restrictions will fuel price pressures again.”

    The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) rose quickly after the release, rising about 7 basis points to just under 4.7%. And bets on when the Federal Reserve will next cut interest rates were also pushed back.

    Traders now see less than a 50% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates before the central bank’s June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Yesterday, traders saw about a 55 percent chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points by the end of its May meeting.

    Markets sold off as interest rates rose. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), which opened the day in the green, lost about 1%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC), which was also positive earlier in the session, fell about 0.4%.

  •     Josh Schafer

    Job vacancies increased more than expected in November

    Job vacancies rose more than expected in November as investors continue to analyze the pace of the labor market slowdown and wonder how much further the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

    New Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday showed there were 8.1 million job openings at the end of November, up from 7.84 million in October.

    The October figure was revised upward from the 7.74 million job vacancies originally reported. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected 7.74 million openings in November in Tuesday’s report

    The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also found that 5.27 million new hires were made during the month, compared to 5.39 million in October. The hiring rate fell to 3.3% from 3.4% in October. Tuesday’s report also said the churn rate, a sign of worker confidence, fell to 1.9% from 2.1% in October. The total number of layoffs fell to 3.07 million from 3.28 million in October.

  • Alexandra Canal

    Stocks open higher

    US stocks rose slightly on Tuesday, with Nvidia (NVDA) again boosting market sentiment.

    The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.3%, posting near technology-driven gains from the previous session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) also rose 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained about 0.2%.

  • Laura Bratton

    Nvidia bounces back after CEO unveils AI superchip and robotics technology at CES

    Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose as much as 2.5% in premarket trading after CEO Jensen Huang gave a keynote speech at the tech industry’s annual CES trade show in Las Vegas late Monday.

    Huang’s presentation provided numerous updates on upcoming Nvidia products and previewed what’s next in the emerging market for artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies.

    Nvidia shares closed at a record high of $149.43 on Monday ahead of Huang’s keynote, surpassing the previous record close of $148.88 set on November 7.

    Read more here.

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