As in the past, below are the keys and my prediction for the Pittsburgh Steelers to win (or lose) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score in their Week 13 game against the Cincinnati Bengals and vice versa.

My Steelers prediction is below.

The Steelers will win if…

1. Pat Freiermuth has a big game (like last season)

TE Pat Freiermuth has put up modest numbers this season and has yet to have a statement game this season. He didn’t rush for 60 yards in any of the team’s first 11 games. Maybe the offense can turn back the clock to last year’s meeting, the first post-Matt Canada sacking. One where he rushed for 120 yards from the field in a career game and one of the best Steelers tight ends in recent memory.

It wouldn’t be a bad idea to repeat this game plan. The Bengals have struggled at tight ends this season and LB Logan Wilson is dealing with a knee injury, although I expect him to play. As teams play more Cover 2 to take away the deep ball outside the numbers, the middle of the field becomes free. This is one of the reasons why WR Calvin Austin III had his big game in the loss to the Cleveland Browns. Two-high looks that opened this property.

2. Run the Find the Center game

Especially if the Bengals play a lot of the aforementioned two-high coverage. Pittsburgh has to be able to run against it. They weren’t strong enough in their plan or execution last week. Cincinnati can be attacked in the middle and has a poor run defense that consistently gives up long distances, even if they have limited the block runs.

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. They need the space from the O-line to reach the second level, succeed on first downs, control the clock and keep the Bengals offense off the field. The key will be to build on Cincinnati’s 5-2 front in the early going, an area where Pittsburgh has struggled.

3. You finish the last five minutes

What makes Pittsburgh good (in general)? Complete games. Where do the Bengals (in general) have problems? Final games. The Steelers have their exceptions, Week 12 being the most recent and obvious example, but they are 5-3 in one-score games this year. The Bengals are just 1-6 in such games this year. Cincinnati finds ways to cover up losses while Pittsburgh takes control of the final few minutes and pulls away with the win “Must have it” play late. In this case, that works in their favor.

The Steelers will lose if…

1. Tea Higgins Bodies Donte Jackson

Dealing with Ja’Marr Chase is difficult and obvious enough. CB Joey Porter Jr. and the rest of this defense (it won’t be a one-man job) will have their hands full. But this attention and action has resulted in the B-side being discussed less. Higgins is a capable receiver and will likely be the No. 1 wideout for another team next season. Health was an issue, but he was productive on the field. In fact, his per-game numbers aren’t far off.

Stats per game for Ja’Marr Chase 2024: 6.6/96/1.1
Tee Higgins 2024 stats per game: 6.3/81.5/0.7

Chase’s numbers are better, but they are comparable numbers. Higgins has scored more than 10 goals in half of the games he has played this season. The point is that he is a more than viable threat in this offense. Cincinnati will look to compete against the undersized and declining Donte Jackson. This isn’t a guarantee that Higgins will have a big game, but Jackson needs to rise to the challenge just as much as Porter does on the other side.

2. Pittsburgh can’t win the shootout

Cincinnati’s 4-7 is due to defense, not offense. They can just as easily score over 30 points if they give it up. The Steelers can also score big under Russell Wilson, but they aren’t as proven or consistent. If this becomes a struggle for the offense, that’s typical for the Bengals and increases their chances of winning.

3. Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson’s impact won’t be negated

After struggling with Myles Garrett last week, the O-line can redeem itself against DE Trey Hendrickson. He’s not quite that caliber, but Hendrickson has quietly led the league in sacks through the first 12 weeks. He is their primary and often only source of pass rush production. Hendrickson accounts for 60 percent of the team’s sacks and nearly 40 percent of its pressures. Better chips, more slides and a better quick game plan are all crucial.

Pittsburgh also needs better and faster personnel and substitution procedures, which have too often plagued them on the road, another problem in this competition.

forecast

Bengal: 25
Steelers: 20

Seasonal forecast record

5-6