The Phoenix Suns first have to worry about Saturday’s game against the Golden State Warriors, but with the Emirates NBA Cup in mind, Tuesday’s showdown with the San Antonio Spurs will play an important role in whether they qualify for the in-season -Qualify the league tournament.

However, there are several other factors at play, and the Suns could qualify for the knockout rounds as either Group B winners or as a Western Conference wild card, as they did last year.

In recent weeks, specially scheduled games on Tuesdays and Fridays have counted toward this NBA Cup, with the quarterfinals scheduled for December 10-11. With a record of 2-1 and a lead of +19 points in the first three group games, the Suns have a chance to win their group with a win against San Antonio on Tuesday and are also in the race for the West’s Wild card spot.

The NBA’s attempt to add meaning to the early stages of its lengthy regular season has been a strangely controversial topic, but make no mistake: Just like last year, the Suns want to come in and win the NBA Cup.

This week, after the Suns’ NBA Cup victory over the Los Angeles Lakers, Booker admitted that they are keeping an eye on the point differential – echoing his thoughts from last year about this in-season tournament.

“It’s just something that’s different, man,” Devin Booker had said. “I think it develops the game, it makes the game grow. I don’t know the stats on this, but I feel like the games had a higher intensity, something to play for – maybe the half million dollars that everyone wants. But it was fun, I like it.”

At worst, NBA Cup games were elevated regular-season games dressed in fancier packaging (with mostly uglier courts). At best, these were more competitive stakes, adding a little more spice to the part of the sporting calendar where most fans still belong to football.

“It’s an opportunity for the fans to know that there’s more at stake in the regular season because the fans just want to see the playoffs and the series and the high-intensity moments,” Kevin Durant explained last year. “So the NBA is creating a high-intensity moment in a regular season because a lot of fans have been complaining about things like this for years. Hopefully they like it this year. I know the players will come out and try to play as hard as they can in every game and produce a good product on the field.”

Coach Mike Budenholzer was out of the league last year when the in-season tournament began, but his first experience with the NBA Cup was also positive.

“I think it’s good,” Budenholzer said on Tuesday. “I could tell you what it was like from a distance. As someone who wasn’t in the league last year, I was very confident. Now looking at our third game, the players talking about it today and just watching the league, I think it’s really good for the league. I think they’ve done a good job of creating something that has more interest and value, and we’re playing for something that’s a little bit bigger as the season goes on.”

The question is: What has to happen for the Suns to be one of the eight teams – four in the West, four in the East – that qualify for the knockout round?

Decisive scenarios for the Suns in the Emirates NBA Cup

First, here are the basic rules: There are six groups (three in each conference), and the winner of each group automatically qualifies for the eight-team knockout phase. The final two spots are filled by one wildcard team per conference, meaning the second-best team from each Western Conference group competes.

The first tiebreaker is record, followed by a points difference. The total number of points scored in the group stage (excluding overtime points) is then shown, followed by each team’s record in the regular season last season and finally, if necessary, a random drawing.

Ahead of the final day of group play on Tuesday, December 3rd, here are the rankings for Phoenix’s group, Group B:

1. San Antonio Spurs: 2:1 balance, +14 points difference
2. Oklahoma City Thunder: 2:1 balance, +18 points difference
3. Phoenix Suns: 2:1 balance, +19 points difference
4. Los Angeles Lakers: 2:2 record, -24 points difference
5. Utah Jazz: 0-3 record, -27 point difference

Don’t worry too much about the top three spots just yet, as all three of these teams have a chance of winning Group B based on Tuesday’s games.

The Thunder may have the easiest path to winning Group B as their remaining game is against the Utah Jazz. At 15-4, OKC is the best team in the Western Conference so far this season, while the Jazz are 4-14, 14th in the Western Conference and have yet to win a game in NBA Cup group play.

A win over Utah would move the Thunder to 3-1. If the Suns beat the Spurs, they would also be 3-1. However, OKC would still win the group in this scenario since the first tiebreaker is a head-to-head matchup and the Thunder defeated Phoenix in their group game on November 15th.

However, even if OKC beats Utah, if the Suns lose to the Spurs, San Antonio would actually win Group B. Both the Spurs and the Thunder would be 3-1 in this scenario, but San Antonio beat OKC in the head. There will be a head-to-head matchup on November 19th, so they are in the tiebreaker for the group win.

For the Suns to win Group B, they need to beat Spurs on Tuesday. And They have to hope that Utah somehow pulls off an unlikely upset against OKC. Phoenix would be the only 3-1 team in this scenario.

However, let’s assume that the Thunder take care of business against the Jazz, which eliminates any possibility of Phoenix winning Group B outright. At this point, the Suns need to beat San Antonio — and get a little help — to clinch a wild-card spot.

In this scenario, OKC wins Group B with a 3-1 record and the tiebreaker over Phoenix. The Suns improve to 3-1 and become the wild card contender in Group B. At this point, their competition would be any second-place team from Group A or Group C that also finishes with a 3-1 record.

In Group A, the Houston Rockets (3-0) have already secured first place in their group. The Suns’ main rival would be the Portland Trail Blazers, who are 2-1 in group play and will face the LA Clippers (1-2 in group play) on Tuesday.

If the Clippers beat the Blazers, both teams would finish 2-2, and Portland would fall short of Phoenix’s 3-1 record. If Portland and Phoenix both win, they’ll both be 3-1, but the Blazers would have a much floor to catch up in the next tie-break, which is a point difference.

Heading into Tuesday’s game, the Blazers have a lead of -5 points while the Suns have a lead of +19. That means if Phoenix beats San Antonio by one point, Portland would have to beat LA by 26 points to overtake the Suns in point differential. So if the Suns beat the Spurs by 10 points, the Blazers would have to beat the Clippers by 35 points, and so on and so forth. Phoenix should In that regard, unless LA is a complete no-show against Portland, it will be fine.

In the other group, the Golden State Warriors (3:0) have already won Group C and will play their last game against the Denver Nuggets (1:2) on Tuesday. The Dallas Mavericks (2-1) are the biggest threat to Phoenix in Group C for the wildcard spot and will face the Memphis Grizzlies (1-2) in their final group game. The Mavs are also a massive threat thanks to their massive +41 point lead.

If Dallas beats Memphis, they’ll have a 3-1 record, and that worst The possible points difference they could have is +42. That means the Suns would have to outscore the Spurs by 23 points to get their +19 up enough bind Dallas in point difference.

At this point, the next tiebreaker would be the total points scored in group play. Dallas is currently at 372 while the Suns are at 330. This means that if Phoenix ties the Mavs in point differential, they would also have to score 43 points more than anything Dallas scored on Tuesday.

So if both Phoenix and Dallas win, the best path for the Suns is to outright overtake the Mavs by a point difference. To do that, they would have to beat San Antonio 23 more points than whatever Dallas beats Memphis. So if the Mavs won by 10, the Suns would have to win by 33. If the Mavs won by 20, the Suns would have to win by 43, and so on and so forth.

Long story short: For Phoenix to win Group B on Tuesday, Suns fans will be hoping for a win over San Antonio and a Jazz upset over the Thunder. If OKC beats the weak Jazz, Suns fans should hope for a Blazers loss to the Clippers (or a Blazers win that isn’t an outright loss) as well as a Mavericks loss to the Grizzlies.

And if the Thunder, Suns, Blazers and Mavs all With Tuesday’s win, Suns fans will have to hope that Portland (-5) doesn’t find a way to catch Phoenix (+19) in point differential, and they’ll have to pray that the Suns can somehow overtake Dallas in that category (+41) .

And of course, if the Suns lose to the Spurs on Tuesday and fall to 2-2 in group play, they will definitely miss the NBA Cup.