Texas is still overrated.

The Longhorns have played a ridiculously easy schedule, with five of their six SEC wins coming against teams with losing records.

Texas A&M will be the best defense Texas has faced all season.

After posting questionable offensive numbers against Arkansas (4.2 yards per game), Vanderbilt (5.6 yards per game) and Georgia (3.4 yards per game), I don’t see the Horns showing up in a callous road environment. It’s also worth noting that Quinn Ewers is dealing with a nagging ankle injury.

I don’t love the Aggies’ offense, but I improved it after switching from Connor Weigman to Marcel Reed at quarterback.

Reed can be very effective when using an RPO-based scheme, as was seen last week on the road against a borderline Auburn defense (41 points, 7.8 yards per play, 55% completion rate).

Texas A&M also has a significant advantage on special teams, the always underrated third phase of the game.

For what it’s worth: Mike Elko’s Duke teams went 3-1 as home underdogs and averaged more than 10 points per game.

The pick: Texas A&M +5.5

Air Force (-4.5) over SAN DIEGO STATE

San Diego State is a terrible two-way football team.

Still, the Aztecs are the most vulnerable to opposing rushing attacks, ranking 118th nationally in EPA per rush allowed, 112th in rush success rate allowed and 130th in stuff rate.

This doesn’t bode well against a triple option attack.

Although Air Force was virtually lifeless for most of the season, the Falcons showed an upward trend as the season progressed, winning three straight games as underdogs – including a 36-28 win over Fresno State as a 10-point underdog three weeks ago .

San Diego State has now lost five games in a row, including three by more than 20 points.

VANDERBILT (+11) over Tennessee

Diego Pavia’s Commodores are considered big outsiders.

They run a fast-paced, rush-heavy, quasi-triple-option attack that shortens the game, turns the clock, limits possession, and makes it difficult for opposing offenses to build a lead.

That leaves Vanderbilt as an underdog at 7-1 this season.

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Betting on college football?

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Even though Tennessee has an elite defense, I’m consistently underwhelmed by Nico Iamaleava and the Volunteers’ offense, meaning they’re not considered a big favorite.

Therefore, the Vols are considered double-digit favorites in SEC play at 0-4 ATS.

Last week: 1-1. Kansas (West), Northwest (L)
2024 season: 21-15.