Texas Tech Football vs. Arkansas: Liberty Bowl Analysis, Prediction

The 66th edition of the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tennessee will pit slimmed-down versions of the Texas Tech football team and Arkansas.

Tech (8-4) will be without quarterback Behren Morton (shoulder surgery) and wide receiver Josh Kelly (opt-out), both top 10 in the FBS in key statistical categories. Part-time starting tackle Dalton Merryman and Ty Buchanan have committed to new teams through the NCAA transfer portal.

Additionally, Tech’s offensive and defensive coordinators from the past three seasons are gone, temporarily replaced by position coaches Justin “Juice” Johnson and CJ Ah You for the bowl game.

Arkansas (6-6) has four players declare for the NFL draft, including rushing leader Ja’Quinden Jackson, receiving leader Andrew Armstrong and sacks leader Landon Jackson. Since the transfer portal opened on Dec. 9, the Razorbacks have used seven starters and five more in doubleheaders.

The Razorbacks are 1 1/2-point favorites. Kick-off is Friday at 6 p.m. at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.

More:Texas Tech Football Portal Participants Play in Liberty Bowl; Tahj Brooks’ decision is still pending

More:How Texas Tech Football’s top-ranked portal class pushes over 20 players into the roster bubble

When Texas Tech football is on

Two-time 1,500-yard rusher Tahj Brooks started the week in Memphis, although neither he nor Tech coach Joey McGuire said at the time whether Brooks would play. With Brooks out, true freshmen Cameron Dickey (26 carries, 151 yards, one touchdown) and J’Koby Williams (26-113-1) take center stage. Arkansas has the 32nd ranked rushing defense in the FBS and still has its top three tacklers: linebackers Xavian Sorey (89 tackles, nine tackles for loss) and Stephen Dix Jr. (65 tackles) and nickelback Doneiko Slaughter (76 tackles).

Advantage: Texas Tech if Brooks plays; Arkansas if he doesn’t.

More:Tahj Brooks feels the love in his final Texas Tech football home game

If Texas Tech passes

True freshmen Will Hammond and Jacob Ponton are set to make their first career starts at quarterback and left tackle, respectively. The presence of WRs Caleb Douglas (55 catches, 762 yards, six TDs) and Coy Eakin (45-605-6) as well as TE Jalin Conyers (29-308-5) should help Hammond settle in. Arkansas ranks last in the SEC in pass defense and has lost its top two players in sacks and S TJ Metcalf (57 tackles, team-high three interceptions, seven pass breakups).

Advantage: Texas Tech

More:Inside Will Hammond’s quest to make his first career start in the Liberty Bowl for Texas Tech football

When Arkansas runs

Without Ja’Quinden Jackson (149-790-15), QB Taylen Green (141-521-7) could be Arkansas’ most dangerous run game option. Freshman RB Braylen Russell (47-304-2) had his name in the portal twice each, but Arkansas lists sophomore Rodney Hill (20-103-2) as the starter. The Razorbacks’ 41st-ranked rush offense is further weakened by the portal departures of three starting offensive linemen. A Tech defense led by LBs Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts didn’t lose much in the portal.

Advantage: Texas Tech

More:Jacob Rodriguez leads Texas Tech football coaches’ All-Big 12 honorees

When Arkansas passes by

Gone are WRs Armstrong (78-1, 140-1) and Isaiah Sategna (37-491-1) and TE Luke Hasz (26-324-4). WR Isaac TeSlaa (25-438-3) is the only player on the Razorbacks’ bowl depth chart with at least 200 yards receiving. It’s a battle of toughness versus moving object, with Tech’s pass defense ranking second-to-last in the FBS despite five sacks from Rodriguez and four interceptions from S CJ Baskerville. Green is the SEC’s fourth-leading passer with 2,813 yards.

Advantage: Arkansas

More:Texas Tech Football vs. Arkansas: Early storylines for the Liberty Bowl

Special teams

Tech K Gino Garcia (18 of 19 field goals) and KR Drae McCray (26.4 yard average) can compete with most of the country’s best players in their categories, and P Jack Burgess (42.0 yard average) was solid. Arkansas P Devin Bale (44.9 yard average) ranks fifth in the SEC, but PR Sategna returned all punts for the Razorbacks this year and was one of the departures in the transfer portal.

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Texas Tech Football vs. Arkansas: Liberty Bowl Analysis, Prediction

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