The 3 best college basketball bets and predictions for Tuesday 12/17/24

The 3 best college basketball bets and predictions for Tuesday 12/17/24

College basketball is back and offers us plenty of betting options with so many teams in action every day.

Fortunately, we have numerous tools at our disposal that can improve our chances of getting good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that provide insight into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference also provides a wide range of useful team statistics.

Let’s take a look at the college basketball odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and use the tools mentioned to pick some of the best bets of the day.

Please note that lines may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today’s best college basketball picks

James Madison Dukes at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

James Madison over 63.5 points (-112)

There’s a matchup between James Madison and Wake Forest on Tuesday, and Bart Torvik expects those teams to be nearly even, as the Dukes are ranked 115th in the adjusted rankings while the Demon Deacons are ranked 98th.

JMU’s biggest challenge will likely be getting the ball to the basket, as Wake Forest ranks 193rd in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 35th in adjusted defense. This is also proven by the fact that the Deacons gave up just 64.8 points per game (top 9% in defense) and had an effective field goal percentage of 45.5% (top 10%).

However, the Dukes are averaging 74.1 PPG (Top 44%) paired with an eFG% of 53.5 (Top 24%). This is led by a ferocious three-point attack that makes 27.8 shots per game (top 12%), along with a 48.1% shooting distribution from deep (top 8%). Meanwhile, Wake is giving up a 45.5% three-point shooting percentage (bottom 12%) while allowing 8.2 three-pointers per game (bottom 32%) and 26.3 three-pointers per Competition (bottom 15%) gives up.

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Adding to the Demon Deacons’ woes is that JMU has hit double-digit three-pointers in five of its last six games and has shot 37.5% from long range in that span. For comparison, the Dukes are shooting an efficient 36.8% from three-point range this season (top 20%). James Madison’s most recent rating of 37.5% would place it in the top 16% in college basketball.

Considering this three-point matchup, today’s 63.5-point defense feels disrespectful to the Dukes. According to numberFire’s college basketball forecast, James Madison will score 73.2 points. Give me the over for the road underdog.

No. 25 Clemson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks

South Carolina Moneyline (+106)

One of the most anticipated games tonight is the Clemson-South Carolina rivalry. The Gamecocks have the home advantage in an intense duel, but the Tigers are the favorites with 2.5 points. As Bart Torvik suggests, Clemson (33rd) is probably the superior team to South Carolina (63rd). However, we should not ignore this street environment.

According to Bart Torvik’s game predictions, South Carolina will win by about a point, which puts a lot of value on that moneyline for the home underdog. Let’s look at the numbers.

First of all, these two teams have a similar style, playing through the post and relying on solid defense. Even among the slowest pace adjustments in college basketball, every squad ranks in the top 31%. With every defense ranking in the top 100 in points allowed per game and field goals allowed per contest, good shooting will be key tonight.

Still, attacking the rim could be more valuable than normal. I expect the Gamecocks to win in this category. USC ranks in the top 37% in close-range 2-point shot distribution, while the Tigers rank 106th in 2-point shot distribution allowed. On the other side of the ball, South Carolina only has a 32.4% shooting distribution from close twos (top 12%), and Clemson is in the low 30% in shooting distribution from close twos.

Two of the Tigers’ top three scorers are upfront: Ian Schiefelin (13.0 PPG) and Viktor Lahkin (12.1 PPG). The Gamecocks’ central defense is reinforced by forwards Collin Murray Boyleswho has a Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR) of 3.03 – over EvanMiya.

Clemson also relies on second chance points thanks to its 34.7% offensive rebound percentage (top 8%), but South Carolina averages 25.5 defensive rebounds per game (top 13%). Taking away offensive rebounds from the Tigers should only draw more attention.

With the ability to control the glass and paint area in a low-scoring defensive game, I really like the Gamecocks’ chances of pulling off the upset tonight.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 7 Florida Gators

Florida over 86.5 points (-104)

Since November 22nd, Florida has been turning heads, covering five straight games with an average margin of +22.8 points. This wasn’t just against lesser competition, however, as the Gators beat Arizona State and Virginia by an average margin of +17.5 points compared to the last two.

Florida has its toughest matchup of the season at North Carolina, but the Tar Heels are 2-3 and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games. UNC’s defense is a major concern as it ranks 49th in adjusted defense while the Gators rank 6th in adjusted offense. UF is posting 86.2 PPG (top 3%) and has exceeded 86 points in three of the last five.

The three-ball has been an integral part of Florida’s offense, firing 28.8 attempts per game (top 8%) and 9.7 per contest (top 11%). Against this Tar Heels defense that is giving up 78.7 PPG (bottom 20%) and 66.7 field goal attempts per game (bottom 2%), you basically have to make your pick. A lot of that has to do with UNC’s sixth-fastest adjusted tempo in college basketball.

Even though the Gators’ lead is high at 86.5 points, there should be more than enough field goal attempts in this game for the over to be successful. Florida also ranks in the top 31% when it comes to the fastest paces in the country. Paired with UF’s 65.1 shots per contest (top 2%), speed shouldn’t be an issue in this matchup.

Additionally, opponents recorded 9.3 three-point attempts (bottom 12% for defense) and 27.1 three-point attempts per game (bottom 9%) against the Tar Heels. Against North Carolina, attempts are up across the board, but the Tar Heels giving up 40.6% shooting from three (down from 39%) shows that this three-point defense is a legitimate concern.

In fact, UNC commits 17.8 personal fouls per game (bottom 42%). This should continue to feed the Gators’ offense – which is recording 20.4 free throw attempts per game (top 35%). Florida guards Walter Clayton Jr. (19.1 PPG) and Aliyah Martin (15.2 PPG) could thrive against the Heels’ disappointing defensive backcourt RJ Davis (1.43 DBPR) and Seth Trimble (1.67 DBPR).

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What bets are catching your eye around the country tonight? Check out the latest college basketball betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook to see the full range of options.

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The above author is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The author’s advice does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice is not a guarantee of a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.

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