Even within a single NBA game, there are numerous betting markets.

You can bet on traditional markets like the spread or total, but we also have plenty of player prop markets to browse.

Which bets stand out today as the Denver Nuggets take on the Dallas Mavericks?

Let’s look at the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook’s NBA betting odds and use FanDuel Research’s NBA predictions to find value.

Nuggets at Mavericks Betting Picks

Mavericks under 114.5 points (-104)

Keep an eye on the injury report ahead of tonight’s primetime matchup on TNT between the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks. Denver is expected to have the majority of its lineup, as Nikola Jokic (illness), Jamal Murray (knee) and Aaron Gordon (calf) are all likely to play.

Meanwhile, the Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic (calf) for the tenth game in a row. Kyrie Irving (back) has missed the last five but has a chance to return with status in question after fully participating in practice.

Of course, Luka (28.1 PPG) and Kyrie (24.3 PPG) lead the Dallas offense, while Doncic (33.0%) and Irving (26.7%) lead the team in usage rates. During Luka’s absence, Dallas has scored just 109.0 points per game (PPG), compared to its season average of 116.1 PPG (ninth). Irving and Doncic each missed six straight games, and the Mavs hit 44.4% during that time, compared to 47.9% on the season (sixth best).

Conclusion: This offense is far from its seventh-best offensive rating when its stars are out. Irving may return tonight, but Dallas’ effective field goal percentage (eFG%) drops from 57.5% to 54.0% when Luka is not on the field. Without Doncic, the actual shooting percentage drops from 60.5% to 57.9%.

Because Luka and Kyrie are two of the Mavericks’ three strongest three-point shooters, the Mavs tend to attack the rim more often when one of their contributors is absent. Dallas already scores the ninth-most points per game, but the Nuggets have the sixth-lowest shooting distribution around the rim (according to Dunks & Threes).

DRatings predicts a total score of 113.0 for the Mavs, pointing to Dallas falling short with a total score of 114.5.

Nuggets -3.5 (-110)

Since this game tends to go in Denver’s favor, the Nuggets match up well with Dallas, scoring under 114.5 points. We’ve discussed why the Nuggets’ solid interior defense should carry more weight in this matchup, but what about on the other side of the court?

Denver is deadly here and has the fourth-best offensive rating. The Mavericks were mediocre defensively, with the 12th-best rating, but they don’t exactly do badly when Doncic and Irving aren’t on the court defending.

The Nugs’ strategy for scoring points is pretty short and sweet. While they average the fewest three-point attempts per game, they also record the most points per game. Dallas gives up the third-lowest three-point shooting percentage compared to the 15th-highest mark at the rim. Against the Mavs’ defense, opponents are averaging 49.7 points per game (sixth-most for the defense) and 36.0 three-pointers per contest (fourth-lowest for the defense).

This defense fits exactly what the Nugs want to do – attack the rim, attack, attack.

We know that Dallas’ shooting efficiency drops sharply when Doncic is out, and we can compare this to Denver, which touted the third-highest eFG percentage at 56.4%. This game sets up to give the Nuggets a road win – especially when they are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games, while the Mavericks are 2-8 ATS over the same period.

Nikola Jokic under 28.5 points (-106)

Not all of our picks will be in the Nuggets’ favor. Nikola Jokic is averaging 31.2 PPG and has the second-lowest NBA MVP odds (+145). However, Jokic has had fewer than 20 points in three of his last five meetings with Dallas.

What was the difference? The Mavericks added Dereck Lively in the 2023 NBA Draft. After posting a shaky 117.8 defensive rating a season ago, the second-year center currently has a 109.8 defensive rating heading into the 2024-25 season.

Dallas’ defense can be prone to allowing points, but that’s not because Lively is a weak defender. Assuming he wins most matchups against Jokic, he limits opponents to 50.2% shooting on shots within 10 feet of the bucket, in addition to a 52.0% shot spread allowed in the same area.

Jokic regularly attacks the painted area with a field goal frequency of 65.0% inside 10 feet, which he shoots at 60.6%. Lively has the opportunity to limit this part of Joker’s game.

On January 12th against the Mavs, Jokic had 19 points and a field goal percentage of 46.2% (55.4% for the season). Our NBA DFS projections have Jokic scoring 26.7 points, which is below his 28.5 points.

If these predictions are correct, this means a 64.7% chance of scoring less than 29 points (or -183 odds). This is an excellent value compared to the current -106 odds for the under (or an implied probability of 51.5%).

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The above author is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The author’s advice does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice is not a guarantee of a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.