The 3 best NFL player prop bets for Thursday Night Football: Broncos at Chargers

The 3 best NFL player prop bets for Thursday Night Football: Broncos at Chargers

Even within a single NFL game, there are numerous betting markets.

From spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props, everything is at your fingertips. It can be a lot to sort out.

So which bets stand out as the Denver Broncos take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football? Let’s take a look at FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL predictions about our numbers at FanDuel Research and NFL odds References are to FanDuel Sportsbook. The lines may change after this article is published.

Picking the best player props from Thursday Night Football

Courtland Sutton over 62.5 receiving yards (-113)

Since Week 8, Courtland Sutton has been the clear No. 1 option in Denver’s passing attack, posting a 28.6% target share and 47.6% air yardage share over the last seven games. During that time, he averaged 5.1 downfield hits (10+ yards through the air) per game, giving him plenty of opportunity for chunk plays on a regular basis.

While Sutton only amassed 32 receiving yards in Week 15, that had more to do with Bo Nix uncharacteristically only throwing for 130 yards (and 3 interceptions) in windy conditions. But the key takeaway is that Sutton still led the team with 9 targets (28.1% share), so his effort was still on point.

Prior to this outing, Courtland had recorded at least 70 receiving yards in six consecutive weeks.

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This isn’t necessarily a positive against a Chargers team that ranks seventh in scheduled pass defense, but LA could be missing some key defensive players, and they were just split up by Baker Mayfield in a game where leading fullback Mike Evans caught 9 of 11 targets for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Our NFL projections have Sutton posting a game-high 64.2 receiving yards and 8.6 targets.

Bo Nix over 21.5 rushing yards (-113)

If Nix maximizes his rushing potential, he should clear this bar without much trouble. The question is more whether he will do that.

The rookie quarterback ran 8 times for 23 yards last week, and before that he spent four straight weeks with 3 or fewer rushes and never managed more than 5 rushing yards in any of those games. Whether by design or simply because Nix became more comfortable as an NFL passer, he simply didn’t use his legs as much as he did when he first started.

But his willingness to run in Week 15 is a sign that he will still take advantage of his speed when the opportunity arises, and he has averaged 5.4 carries and 23.4 rushing yards per game overall. He has exceeded that limit in 7 of 14 starts, recording 35 or more rushing yards in 5 of them.

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This particular duel is also a reason for optimism. Against quarterbacks, the Chargers rank 28th in rushing yards expected per attempt, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and 26th in rushing yards gained per carry, which helped them rank 11th-most Rushing yards given up to this position.

Even more encouraging, when the Broncos faced the Bolts in Week 6, Nix ran six times for 61 yards, sailing past today’s line.

Our model is also on board and projects Bo for 27.5 rushing yards.

Gus Edwards under 34.5 rushing yards (-113)

That low number gives me pause, but Gus Edwards has only exceeded that mark once in three games (barely) since JK Dobbins’ injury, and this is a brutal matchup against Denver.

The Broncos have allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards in the league, and that’s backed up by the fact that they rank in the top six defensively in rushing yards above expectations per attempt, rushing success rate and expected rushing points per carry. numberFire also ranks Denver as the second-best adjusted rush defense in the NFL.

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Additionally, Edwards could even be phased out of his lead back duties after his snap rate dropped for three straight weeks (53.3%, 43.9% and 27.1%), and he has been in the last two Playing overtaken by Kimani Vidal. While this could be due in part to recent negative schedules – Edwards has only scored three goals all season – he posted a modest 32.0% snap rate in the first half last week (compared to 64.0% for Vidal), even though the Chargers were down by just 4 points at halftime. And while LA is the home favorite by 2.5 points, it’s not unreasonable to imagine a scenario where the Broncos take an early lead, which could quickly push Edwards to the bench.

LA might also be smart to give Vidal more carries. He’s averaged 0.05 rushing yards above expectations per carry over the last three games, while Edwards is at an ugly -0.30.

Again, this isn’t a huge sum for Edwards, but there are enough warning signs to expect another dud from him, which leads me to take the shorthanded pick.

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The above author is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The author’s advice does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice is not a guarantee of a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.

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