The San Francisco 49ers finally looked like Super Bowl contenders with Sunday’s stunning win over the hapless Chicago Bears. But even with the win, the Niners’ chances of making the playoffs worsened.

It was a difficult weekend for San Francisco’s chances of making the NFC playoffs, particularly in the NFC West. Even by improving to 6-7, Athletic’s playoff model reduced the Niners’ chances of winning the division by one percentage point compared to the previous week, now at 4%. Their overall chances of a playoff spot also remained the same at 6%.

Things don’t look much better with other statistical models or forecasts. According to ESPN’s projections, the 49ers have an 11% chance of making the playoffs and an 8% chance of winning the division (ESPN’s Football Power Index still praises the 49ers), while NFL’s NextGenStats model .com gives San Francisco an 8% chance of making the playoffs. The Washington Post has the Niners’ worst odds, giving them a 2% chance of winning the division and a 4% chance of a playoff spot.

On Sunday, the division-leading Seattle Seahawks defeated the Arizona Cardinals 30-18 in the Valley of the Sun to improve to 8-5. This not only left San Francisco two games behind Seattle, but also gave Seattle a season win in the third division.

Even in the 49ers’ best-case scenario of finishing 10-7, which would increase their division record to 3-3, the Niners cannot win the division if Seattle beats the Rams on the road in Week 18 and picks up another win (they host the Packers and Vikings and then travel to the Bears). Since the teams split their two games this year, the closest tiebreaker is division record, and a win over the Rams would give Seattle four NFC West wins.

Meanwhile, the Rams won a shootout over the Buffalo Bills 44-42 in Inglewood and are now 7-6. The 49ers can tie the Rams in their Thursday night showdown, but the Rams will finish their schedule by playing the Jets on the road before hosting the Cardinals and Seahawks. At 2-1 in the division so far, the Rams could lose to the 49ers but still beat them by winning their last three games against the 49ers – the last two wins would give them four NFC West wins.

The 49ers also still have a wild card spot as the Washington Commanders are 8-5. But to have any chance of catching Washington, the 49ers will have to lose two of their last four games (at the Saints, hosting the Eagles and Falcons, and then at the Cowboys). It’s certainly possible, but it’s a long way off.

No matter how you slice it, the 49ers will have no control over their own destiny – and will need some of their NFC rivals to help them out to keep their playoff hopes alive.