My bingo card for this offseason didn’t say that the A’s were signing a free-agent starter to the largest contract in franchise history, given the low payroll they received under “The Owner Who Must Not Be Named,” and the fact that they’ll be playing under a grill in a minor league stadium for at least the next few summers. However, that’s exactly what they did, signing right-hander Luis Severino for the third time to a two-year contract with a player option that guaranteed him a total of $67 million if he stayed for the full term.

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Severino hit free agency this winter for the second time in his career, and unlike his last trip the year before, he’s coming off one of the best years of his career – and a rare healthy year at that. He returned from multiple arm injuries, including Tommy John surgery, tossing the most innings he had thrown in a season since 2018 and was one of several rebounding projects to join the Mets who saw real improvement last season.

His speed isn’t quite the same as before, but by adding a sinker he’s at least been able to stop hitters from sitting on the straighter four-seater. His slider is still positive, but not quite as sharp as it was at his peak with the Yankees, so he’s also added a sweeper, giving him six different pitches, according to Statcast’s categorization. Those pitches, along with above-average control, helped him post a 1.6 bWAR/2.1 fWAR season for the Mets, with a 3.91 ERA and 4.21 FIP in 182 innings.

There are two significant risk factors for signing Severino. One is that he has enough trouble against left-handed batters to be a liability against left-handed lineups. Last year, he gave them a .269/.334/.440 line, allowing 16 home runs to left-handed hitters (compared to seven to right-handed hitters, with nearly the same playing time).

His approach against lefties is to attack them with four-seater attacks, which just doesn’t work, so maybe it’s time for something different? He threw the four-seamer 47 percent of the time when facing left-handed batters, compared to just 24 percent of the time against right-handers, and used his cutter and changeup – two pitches often used to hit batters on the opposite side Side tackle the plate – only 19 percent of the time combined against left-handers. That’s not to say the solution is simply to throw more of them and fewer fours, but we at least have some data to show that throwing fours all day to lefties isn’t the optimal strategy.

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The other risk factor is its durability, or lack thereof. When Severino was touted as a candidate for the Yankees system, I expressed concern that his arm-heavy delivery would lead to injuries, and indeed he was injured often. Severino threw a total of 18 innings from 2019 to 2021 and then threw 102 and 89 1/3 innings over the next two years, which is not something you expect or need from a member of your rotation.

Given his slightly limited effectiveness, he will need to rack up a lot of innings to become a $22 million AAV pitcher. At his current ERA/FIP level, he’s not a two-win guy unless he can pitch 180 innings. And there’s a good chance he’ll throw a total of 180 innings in two years of this deal, based on his history alone.

Still, it’s good for the A’s that they’re spending real money to make the team better – and Severino actually makes the team better. Before adding Severino, they didn’t have a starter on their roster who posted an ERA under 4.00 last year, even though the Oakland Coliseum was a strong pitcher’s park, and they only had one pitcher, the lone JP Sears, who suited up for the qualified ERA title.

If Severino simply repeats what he did last year without improving in any way, he’s still the A’s best starter and will give them some extensive innings they need. Their rotation currently consists of Severino, Sears, Mitch Spence (who led the Oakland starters with a 4.21 FIP) and Joey Estes (0.7 bWAR), with a few candidates for the fifth spot. That includes grounder JT Ginn and lefty Hogan Harris, who was fine as a starter last year before being sent down to Triple A in late July and returning to the big leagues as a reliever in late August.

That’s a long way to say they should add another starter, even if it’s just someone who pitches a few innings and maybe becomes a trade player in July. They have no prospect of playing in the major league rotation for any length of time in 2025 – I could imagine Jack Perkins or Mason Barnett being called up in the second half – so they should look for more innings somewhere .

Despite the risk involved, I’m just happy to see the A’s trying to field a better team, especially given the challenges they face in Sacramento. They won’t be fighting for a playoff spot, but they could probably finish with a .500 record, and that’s a much better result than the last three seasons.

(Photo: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)