The Bengals' chances of an AFC wild card

Most of the Bengals players and coaches at Paycor Stadium aren’t thinking about the playoffs right now. Above all, the team needs a win to stop a three-game slide and restore some respect to a 2024 season that hangs in the balance.

But as slim as the likelihood of a postseason may be (and it is pretty slim), the Bengals are still alive in the AFC playoff hunt.

Pro Football Focus estimates the Bengals’ playoff chances at less than 2%. The NFL website puts the percentage chance at 4%. According to a New York Times playoff simulation tool, the Bengals’ playoff odds with a win are about 25%.

So it is possible. Probably? Maybe not.

An important note from the New York Times on its NFL simulation tool: “With 78 games remaining, there are about 302 sextillion different ways the NFL regular season could end.”

No matter how you look at it, the outlook is not promising. But if you play with the simulation tool long enough, you can increase the Bengals’ chances of securing a wild card spot up to 100%. So since it’s possible, let’s figure out how the Bengals could pull off the seemingly improbable.

The playoffs are decided and way too far ahead of Cincinnati

The top-seeded Chiefs (11-1) and second-seeded Bills (10-2) are both in the playoffs and obviously out of sight for the Bengals. Forget these teams until 2025.

The rest of the AFC playoff contenders

The AFC’s Nos. 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 seeds are currently the Steelers (9-3), Texans (8-5), Chargers (8-4) and Ravens (8-5). and the Broncos (7-5).

The Colts (6-7) and Dolphins (5-7) are in 8th and 9th place in the AFC.

And then comes Cincinnati, currently 4-8 and in 10th place in the conference.

A possible path to a playoff spot for the Bengals

Let’s assume that Cincinnati will have the best possible result – five wins to end the year and a record of 9-8 – and a lot of losses for the rest of the conference.

In theory, a nine-win Cincinnati could overtake the Texans, Chargers, Ravens and Broncos, and the Colts and Dolphins are obviously closer. That’s a lot of teams to jump over, but Cincinnati doesn’t have to jump over them all.

The easiest way to put it, and the way that would avoid some potentially complicated tiebreaker scenarios, would be that the Bengals would come into the game with a record of 9-8 while the Texans, Chargers and Ravens are all losing and would each achieve eight wins.

Let’s also focus on the Broncos, as they are currently number seven and the last AFC team in the playoffs for now (the Broncos also play the Browns on Monday in Denver).

The NFL gave Denver a 68 percent chance of reaching the postseason before kickoff in Denver, but the Broncos still have a lot of work to do, including getting to Paycor Stadium on Dec. 29 to face the Bengals.

After Monday’s game against the Browns, Denver faces the Colts, Chargers, Bengals on December 29th and the Chiefs on January 5th, 2025. This is a tough road to a playoff spot.

If Denver goes 2-3 (or worse) and the Bengals win, Cincinnati could match the Broncos’ record (and force tiebreaker scenarios) or even surpass them.

NFL playoff tiebreaker scenarios

The easiest tiebreaker for the NFL playoffs is head-to-head games. But here’s how the NFL determines team tiebreakers between two teams tied after the regular season, in order, according to the league website:

Head-to-head (best percentage of games won/lost in games between clubs). Draw percentage in games played within the conference. Strength of victory in all games. Strength of schedule in all games. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed All games. Best net points in common games. Best net points in all games. Best net touchdowns in all games. Coin toss

NFL playoffs tiebreaker scenarios for three or more teams

Here are the NFL tiebreakers when three or more teams are involved:

Head-to-head (best percentage of games won/lost in games between clubs). Draw percentage in games played within the conference. Strength of victory in all games. Strength of schedule in all games. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games. Best net points in general games. Best net points in all games. Best net touchdowns in all games. Coin toss

NFL tiebreakers for wild card scenarios in playoffs

Here are the NFL tiebreakers for wild card scenarios:

If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply the division tiebreaker. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, use the following steps.

Two-team tiebreaker: Head-to-head, if applicable. Best percentage of won and lost games played within the conference. Best percentage of games won and lost in joint games, at least four. Strength of victory in all games. Strength of schedule in all games. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games. Best net points in conference games. Best net points in all games. Best net touchdowns in all games. Coin toss.

Three-team tiebreaker: (Note: If two clubs remain tied after one or more clubs are eliminated in any step, the tiebreaker restarts at step 1 of the two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club eliminated in any step, tiebreaker begins at step 2 of the three-club format.)

Apply the division tiebreaker to exclude all but the highest ranked club in each division before proceeding to step 2. The initial seeding within a division after application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent uses of the procedure necessary to identify the two wild card entrants. Head-to-head victory. (Applies only if a club has defeated each of the others or if a club has lost to each of the others.) Best won and lost percentage of games played within the conference. Best won and lost percentage when playing together, at least four. Strength of victory in all games. Strength of schedule in all games. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games. Best net points in conference games. Best net points in all games. Best net touchdowns in all games. Coin toss

Once the first Wild Card team has been identified, the process is repeated to name the second and third Wild Card teams (i.e. all but the top-ranked club in each division are eliminated before proceeding to Step 2). In situations where three teams from the same division are involved in the process, the teams’ initial seeding will remain the same for subsequent applications of the tiebreaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a wild card spot.

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