CAN PAT SURTAIN II CONTINUE ITS LOCKDOWN GAME?

One possible reason for the Chargers’ offensive success against the Broncos in Week 6? No Pat Surtain II.

The All-Pro cornerback suffered an injury on the first drive of the game, which the Chargers took advantage of. This time around, the extremely talented Surtain will look to limit quarterback Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ passing game.

According to Next Gen Stats, Surtain has averaged 2.4 catches and 20.3 yards in his seven career games against the Chargers, and as the closest man in coverage, he has yet to allow a touchdown. Surtain has two interceptions against Herbert, including a pick six in their first meeting in Denver in 2021.

Surtain has allowed the fewest yards per target (4.9) of any NFL cornerback with at least 40 targets this year, which explains why he isn’t targeted often. With at least 400 coverage snaps, he has the fewest targets among cornerbacks in the NFL and has been targeted in just 11.7 percent of his coverage snaps against the Chargers since 2022.

Whether Surtain is guarding an impressive rookie in Ladd McConkey or the Chargers’ leader in receiving touchdowns in Quentin Johnston, he could take a big chunk of Los Angeles’ offense out of the game. And if he can do that, it could be good news for Denver’s defense.

CAN THE BRONCOS’ PASS RUSH REACH JUSTIN HERBERT?

In the Broncos’ Week 6 loss to the Chargers, Herbert was sacked just once in the first half as Los Angeles built a 20-0 halftime lead. Denver got to Herbert twice more in the second half as the unit held LA to three points in the second half, and the Broncos may need to pile on the pressure again.

Herbert enters the Week 16 matchup with a 16-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and recorded 11 consecutive starts without an interception before having that streak snapped in Week 15 against Tampa Bay. The Oregon product hasn’t thrown an interception against a division opponent since Week 14 of last season, when outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper picked him off in a win at Denver. In fact, Herbert is on pace to lead the NFL in interception rate, as just 0.5 percent of his passes have been intercepted this season.

How can the Broncos force the talented quarterback to turn the ball over? This could come through pressure, as Denver has the most sacks in the NFL entering Week 16. Denver also has the second-highest pressure rate (38.6) and blitz rate (38.4) in the NFL, and the Chargers allow the ninth-worst pressure rate (45.8) vs. blitzes in the NFL. Herbert was pressured by blitzes on 71 dropbacks this year, which is the third-highest mark in the NFL.

The Broncos are currently on pace to become just the fifth team to lead the NFL in scoring defense and sacks in the same season, and all three previous AFC teams to do so have made it to at least the AFC Championship Game done. If Denver can finish strong and claim the scoring defense title, they would become just the second in franchise history to do so, joining the 1989 unit.

If the Vance Joseph-led group can force Herbert to make mistakes – the Broncos have secured the fourth-most interceptions – and win the turnover battle, Denver could get lucky. The Broncos are 9-1 when forcing a takeaway this season and they are 7-0 when winning the turnover battle. For comparison, Denver has yet to win in the four games in which it has lost the turnover battle this season. However, the Chargers rank fourth in the NFL with a plus-11 turnover margin.

“Part of this game is understanding how to win and how not to beat yourself or how to stop yourself from winning,” Payton said Tuesday. “I think this will be extremely important.”

Can Denver secure the lead in the rushing battle?

When the Chargers came to Denver, they ran past the Broncos. Led by JK Dobbins’ 96 rushing yards, the Chargers totaled 128 rushing yards – including 69 in the first half – against the Broncos.

Los Angeles’ run-first offense exceeded 120 yards six times in the Chargers’ first ten games, and the group also exceeded 150 yards three times. However, the Chargers’ rushing attack hasn’t been the same since Dobbins was placed on injured reserve in late November.

The Chargers have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in each of their last four games, which is the longest streak in Jim Harbaugh’s career as an NFL or FBS head coach, according to Next Gen Stats. Los Angeles has averaged just 18 runs per game since Week 12, which is the fewest in the NFL – and the Chargers carried the ball just 11 times for 32 yards in Week 15 against the Bucs. This performance is the lowest in carries and rush yards by a Harbaugh team in his NFL head coaching career. Los Angeles has been led by Gus Edwards in each of its last three games, but he has averaged fewer than 40 yards in each of those contests.

If Denver’s fifth-ranked rushing defense – which allows the second-fewest yards per carry – can stifle a struggling Chargers running game, it could tip the game in Denver’s favor.

The Broncos will, of course, try to get their own running game going in Los Angeles. Denver will be without Jaleel McLaughlin, who was sidelined with a quadriceps injury, which could lead to more work for rookie Audric Estime. Denver has recorded fewer than 100 rushing yards in three of its last five games, and the Broncos’ coaching staff is closely examining how it can achieve more success.

“I would say there are some looks that we need to be better at versus making a certain play in difficult looks where you don’t really have the leverage right now,” Payton said Monday. “We have to do a better job as coaches, starting with me, and find solutions when the look doesn’t match what you’re training. Overall, I think it’s an area that… here we are, with three weeks left in the season.” “We need to find more consistency there.”

While the Chargers’ defense is tied for first in the league in points allowed, the unit has given up 200 rushing yards in two of its last four games – including 223 yards on Sunday against Tampa Bay.

If Denver can get a head start on the ground by limiting the Chargers and getting their own running game going, it could help determine which team can complete long drives, control the field position game and ultimately win the game.