The Cubs score big in blockbuster trade for Kyle Tucker

The Cubs score big in blockbuster trade for Kyle Tucker

Jed Hoyer and the Cubs front office have made a splash this offseason.

And it gave them one of the best hitters in baseball.

A source confirmed to Marquee Sports Network on Friday that the Cubs completed a blockbuster trade, acquiring outfielder Kyle Tucker from the Astros for third baseman Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith.

With Tucker, the Cubs land the game-changing hitter they have been looking for all season. Since establishing himself as a full-time major league player in 2020, Tucker ranks 10th among all batters in weighted runs created, 43 percentage points above league average, with 143. Since 2020, Tucker ranks third among all outfielders with 20.2 fWAR, behind only Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

What difference would Kyle Tucker make in this Cubs offense?

Well, here’s where he would rank in every major statistical category on the 2024 Cubs:

Home runs: 23 (2nd)
RBI: 49 (7th)
Stolen bases: 11 (6th)
Average: .289 (2nd)
OBP: .408 (1st)
SLG: .585 (1st)
OPS: .993 (1st)
wRC+: 180 (1st)
fWAR: 4.2 (2nd)

And all in 78 games.

Tucker was limited in 2024 due to a fractured right tibia after fouling a ball off his leg. A full season with a healthy Tucker is exactly the type of player the team sorely missed in 2024, when it won 83 games for the second straight year and missed the playoffs again.

The Cubs’ offense stagnated in May and June in back-to-back seasons, crippling their playoff hopes and forcing them to play catch-up the rest of the way. In 2023, her early-season cold coincided with Cody Bellinger’s injury. Bellinger played at an elite level this year and seemed to take over the offense at times this year.

(MORE: As Cubs trade rumors swirl, where does Cody Bellinger fit in?)

“It wasn’t that we didn’t have stars – we didn’t have enough consolidation of wins last year,” Hoyer said at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. “We had a number of players who had good years, but no one had a season with more than five wins that really helped us. I guess that’s kind of how I see it.”

Tucker offers this insurance coverage at a premium price.

But it doesn’t come without question marks.

Certainly there are injury concerns come 2024, but the biggest concerns may come off the field. Tucker is entering his final year before free agency, where he is expected to make around $15 million in arbitration.

The Cubs could try to negotiate a long-term contract extension with the 27-year-old, but it’s possible Tucker wants to hit the open market after 2025, especially after the eye-catching contract awarded to another top-notch outfielder, Juan Soto, this offseason.

And the price the Cubs paid to acquire Tucker wasn’t cheap either.

The 25-year-old Paredes was an elite-level offensive player in Tampa Bay in 2023. This season, the third baseman posted a wRC+ of 136 with 31 home runs, an OPS of .840 and an fWAR of 4.3. Paredes is also under the team’s control for three more seasons and is expected to make around $6 million to $7 million in arbitration next season.

Paredes struggled in his two months in Chicago, posting a .223 batting average with a .633 OPS and 9 extra-base hits, but had extreme differences between home and away. He hit .333 with a .911 OPS on the road, compared to a .105 average/.317 OPS at home.

He was originally signed by the Cubs as a minor league free agent from Mexico in 2015 before being traded to the Tigers in 2017 as part of the Jeimer Candelario transfer. He was traded to the Rays in 2022 and broke through in Tampa Bay.

Paredes is an extreme pull hitter and should benefit immensely from the change of scenery. At Minute Maid Park, the Crawford Boxes are located in left field, the shortest left field distance in the MLB (315 feet). According to Statcast’s expected home runs, Paredes would have hit 26 home runs there, compared to 13 at Wrigley Field and 21 in Tampa Bay.

The other important part of the deal is 2024 first-round pick Smith. Smith finished the year in Double-A after quickly being promoted to the minor leagues. In 134 minor league plate appearances in Single-A Myrtle Beach, High-A South Bend and Tennessee, the third baseman hit .313/.396/.609 (1.004 OPS) with 7 home runs, 24 RBI, 5 doubles and 4 Triples.

Smith is the 78th overall prospect in baseball (per MLB Pipeline) and is ranked as the Cubs’ seventh-ranked prospect.

The Cubs have built strong pitching depth and that weapon stability allowed them to pull off the blockbuster deal for Tucker. Wesneski lose is a blow but one the Cubs can absorb if a superstar slugger comes in return.

Wesneski’s move to Houston is something of a homecoming for the right winger. Wesneski attended high school in Cypress, Texas, about 25 miles northwest of Houston, where he grew up an Astros fan. In 190 big league innings, he posted a 3.93 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, showing plenty of potential but also some concerns.

The right seemed to be dominant at times. In his first appearance in the majors in 2022, he posted a 2.18 ERA in 6 games (33 innings) and 33 strikeouts. But since then he has struggled to carve out a role, bouncing between the majors and minors and from backup to starter.

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