College football’s first-ever playoffs begin this week with 12 teams, kicking off a historic national championship series to conclude the 2024 season with multiple teams vying for the title.

The only thing we know: We will have a new national champion this year after defending champion Michigan failed to qualify for the top dozen.

What can we think of the national championship race right now?

To do this, let’s turn to ESPN’s College Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, utilizes key analytics from both teams and selects winners based on a projected point spread per game.

Ranked from worst to first

Title chance: 1.5 percent

The models give ACC champion Clemson the toughest path of any team in this year’s playoffs, starting with its road trip against SEC runner-up Texas in the first round.

This offense plays confidently with Cade Klubnik at the helm and the Tigers field another talented defense, but the Longhorns are a tough opponent on the road.

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Title chance: 1.8 percent

Confidently winning the Big 12 Championship, coupled with a few losses across the country, allowed the Sun Devils to win the first round this year.

That should give star tailback Cam Skattebo a little more time to rest and get that offense going in his first game against the winner of the Clemson vs. Texas matchup.

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Title chance: 1.9 percent

A clear Group of Five selection, the Broncos won the Mountain West championship that season and also secured a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Now it’s up to Ashton Jeanty, the close runner-up in this year’s Heisman Trophy voting, to prepare Boise State for the winner of SMU vs. Penn State.

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Title chance: 2.4 percent

Although the Mustangs didn’t win the ACC title, they still boast one of the most potent offenses in college football, led by quarterback Kevin Jennings and tailback Barshard Smith.

But first they have to deal with a confident Penn State team playing on one of the loudest home fields in the country.

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Title chance: 2.9 percent

Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers shocked college football this year with one of the sport’s most dynamic offenses, finishing second nationally with over 43 points per game.

They aren’t too bad on defense either, ranking 6th in the FBS by allowing an average of just 15 points, although they will be tested by Notre Dame’s experienced offensive weapons.

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Title chance: 3.6 percent

While the Models don’t have much of a chance against the Vols, they should improve dramatically if they can beat Ohio State on the road in a first-round playoff matchup.

Tennessee has one of the most dominant defenses in the country and ranks ninth out of 134 FBS teams in rushing performance, averaging 232 yards on the ground per game.

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Title chance: 8.6 percent

Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions’ dynamic duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen in the backfield combine to form one of the most promising offensive combinations in the country.

That, in addition to a strong scrimmage defense, might be what Penn State needs to make a small run, but they will be challenged at home in the first round by a speedy SMU team.

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Title chance: 9.8 percent

These predictions are somewhat surprising considering how well the Ducks have played, finishing the 2024 season as the only undefeated team in the FBS standings.

Dillon Gabriel was a Heisman finalist and finished this year as the NCAA’s all-time leader in multiple passing categories. He works with some stealth receivers in the 8th scoring offense.

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Title chance: 11.8 percent

It’s up to Ryan Day to get his team over another loss to rival Michigan, a game that cost the Buckeyes a chance to play for the Big Ten championship this season.

And now they’ve drawn arguably the toughest first-round game of any playoff team, against SEC challenger Tennessee, albeit with the luxury of playing at home.

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Title chance: 15.8 percent

This year’s SEC champions have won two of the last three national championships, but their bid to finish third in four years suffered a setback along with their quarterback.

Carson Beck suffered a hard blow to his throwing arm last game, raising legitimate questions about whether he can take the field in the playoffs.

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Title chance: 15.9 percent

A vote of confidence for the Fighting Irish, who were considered completely out of contention after a shocking home loss to Northern Illinois in September.

But since then, the Golden Domers have won 10 straight games, and have done so in dominant fashion, leading college football in point differential and securing a first-round home game against Indiana.

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Title chance: 24 percent

While the Longhorns missed a first-round bye after losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, they still had home-field advantage early on against Clemson.

And while Texas has one of the most productive defenses in the game across the field, some questions remain about the consistency of this offense.

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