The Packers' playoff picture could change tonight; Latest Playoff Prospects

The Green Bay Packers (10-4) are comfortably on track for the playoffs and have a 99% chance of reaching the postseason, according to the New York Times playoff simulator.

But it’s not a done deal yet. Could it be later Monday when the Minnesota Vikings (11-2) play the Chicago Bears (4-9) and the Atlanta Falcons (6-7) play the Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)? What about next week?

Here’s what needs to happen for the Packers to win:

Could the Green Bay Packers clinch a playoff spot on Monday?

While the Packers have a slight vested interest in both Monday night games, neither outcome will officially secure a spot for Green Bay.

However, a loss in Atlanta helps the cause. The Packers can clinch a playoff spot as early as next week with a win over the New Orleans Saints (or any win in their last three games). They can also clinch victory with a loss to the Saints if Atlanta or either of Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams lose again.

The defeat in Atlanta could be compensated for on Monday evening in Las Vegas. If the Raiders pull off the upset, Tampa Bay would be the only NFC South team that could catch the Packers, and the Buccaneers would win the South division even if they did, keeping them out of the wild card conversation. With Atlanta and the South out of the way, all the Packers would have to do next week is avoid a scenario in which an NFC West team takes the final playoff spot and Green Bay has a tiebreaker over every team in that division.

It remains a scenario in which both the Rams and Seahawks win their next two games and then tie when the two teams meet in the finals. That would make both records 10-6-1; The Rams would win the West and Seattle would have a narrow wild card lead over Green Bay if the Packers lost the rest of their games.

That’s obviously a remote probability.

What needs to happen next week for the Packers to officially claim victory?

A win next week against the Saints removes all doubts. Green Bay will be there.

But the Packers could have some clarity before heading into action on Monday night. If either Seattle (at home to the Vikings) or the Rams (at the New York Jets) lose next week, the crazy scenario in the West will be over and the Packers will be there.

It also requires a retreat by the South. A loss to Atlanta (at home to the New York Giants) would be enough for the Falcons to beat the Raiders on Monday night.

To put it simply, the Packers will be there:

A win against New Orleans OR
A loss to Atlanta (either Monday in Las Vegas or to the New York Giants in Week 16) AND a loss to either Seattle (to Minnesota in Week 16) or Los Angeles (to the New York Jets in Week 16)

Can the Packers still win the NFC North?

Yes, but that’s why the Vikings game on Monday night is important. If Minnesota beats the Bears, the Packers will officially be eliminated from winning the NFC North.

It’s a crazy scenario anyway that would allow Green Bay to take over the division. This requires Detroit to lose all three remaining games and the Packers to win the rest, as the Lions have a two-game lead and three games left to play over the Packers, plus the tiebreaker.

Minnesota also has to lose against Chicago on Monday night, otherwise the Packers won’t be able to get past Minnesota and Detroit. Remember: Green Bay needs Detroit to lose the rest of its games. And Minnesota and Detroit will play each other in the season finale.

For the Packers to overtake Detroit, Green Bay needs Minnesota to win this game. And if the Vikings beat Chicago on Monday, even if they go 1-2 the rest of the game (with the necessary win over Detroit), they would do no worse than tie the Packers – and they own a tiebreaker over Green Bay (a better record compared to NFC North teams).

Simply put, if Minnesota wins on Monday, either Detroit or Minnesota will outperform the Packers. We don’t know exactly which one. But either way, Green Bay is a wild card team.

In any case, Detroit doesn’t look like a team that would lose to Chicago (4-9) or San Francisco (6-8) in the next two weeks before the home game against Minnesota.

Who would the Packers face in the playoffs if the season ended today?

Without a division title, the Packers would be a wild card team regardless of their record. Currently ranked No. 6, Green Bay would face Tampa Bay (8-6), the NFC South leader and current No. 3 seed.

The Bucs finish the year against Dallas (6-8), Carolina (3-11) and New Orleans (5-9), so they appear to be a team that can easily maintain their top spot in the division.

A loss in Minnesota means the Packers are one step closer to catching the Vikings, who clinched a playoff spot this week. It’s still an uphill battle for the Packers to get to the No. 5 seed and catch Minnesota, which has a two-game lead over the Packers and potentially a tiebreaker. The two teams meet in two weeks.

The Vikings would currently be playing against NFC West champion Los Angeles.

It looks promising that Green Bay will face Tampa Bay, Los Angeles or Seattle in the wild card round of the playoffs.

The real fight Packers fans should watch out for

Green Bay (No. 6 seed) is just one game ahead of Washington (No. 7 seed), and the No. 7 seed will face either Detroit (12-2) or Philadelphia (12-2) in the wild. Map round of the playoffs. Needless to say, it’s a far more favorable matchup to win one of the other division winners, who would face the No. 5 or 6 seed.

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