The Ravens’ loss to the Eagles highlights the potential gap in their playoff hopes. How worried should they be – and what’s next?

The Ravens’ loss to the Eagles highlights the potential gap in their playoff hopes. How worried should they be – and what’s next?

As the Baltimore Ravens suffered their fifth loss of the season, a familiar voice answered questions in the locker room.

NFL kickers don’t always meet with reporters after games. They are not always requested. Their impact is often overlooked.

But for the seventh time this season, including all five of the Ravens’ losses, five-time All-Pro Justin Tucker’s kick made an error.

He didn’t just miss once or twice. For the first time in 208 career games, Tucker fumbled three times.

“I hate that I’ve had to have that same conversation over the course of this season,” Tucker said after the Philadelphia Eagles’ 24-19 win in Baltimore. “But that’s the nature of this job description – the kicks are either good or they’re not. And today I didn’t do a good enough job to help our team win the football game.

“I feel like I cost us this.”

In a simplistic, context-less vacuum, Tucker’s calculations add up. He missed two of his four field goal attempts and one of his two extra point attempts. The missed kicks, if made, would have increased the Ravens’ score by seven in a game they lost by five.

Tucker, his teammates and his coaches know that explaining their loss isn’t nearly as easy. Tucker didn’t allow Eagles running back Saquon Barkley more than 100 scrimmage yards or converted 6 of 15 third-down attempts while there were more than 45 minutes between touchdowns.

“He’s still the GOAT,” Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson said. “We should have put more points on the board, shouldn’t have put Tuck in those situations in the first place.

“Hell yeah, I have faith (in him).”

Trust is easy to defend. Tucker’s resume is the blueprint for NFL kicker dreams and Hall of Fame guarantees. He saved the Ravens hundreds of times in 13 years. But as Tucker’s problems reach a new low, the Ravens can’t simply brush away the 10 kicks Tucker missed in 13 games.

Past performance is informative but not predictive. Kicking has a psychological component that the team needs to seriously consider.

From that perspective, the Ravens have to ask themselves: Can they trust Tucker in the final four games of the regular season and into the playoffs? How far away should they take out Tucker and how much insurance do they need?

Like Tucker, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh deserves the benefit of the doubt with this decision. Not only has he been a head coach for 17 years, has a Super Bowl title under his belt and a career winning percentage of 61.7 percent.

Harbaugh is also the rare NFL head coach who has never coordinated offense or defense. Instead, he worked as a special teams coordinator and managed the Eagles’ special teams for nine seasons. Harbaugh knows what it takes to coach a kicker — and it’s safe to assume he knows more than he let on during his postgame media conference.

What did he see in Tucker’s strike and his operation?

“I just saw the misses,” Harbaugh said. “I mean, we go back and look at all this stuff and try to figure it out. … He’s definitely capable of making any kick.”

Tucker’s recent performance didn’t just include missed shots.

Against the Eagles, Tucker made a 34-yard field goal in the first quarter and a 50-yard field goal just before halftime. With three seconds left in the game, Tucker made his extra point attempt to bring the Ravens within five points of Philadelphia.

Justin Tucker's career resume is one of the best in NFL history. Can he continue this at 35 years old? (Source: Pro Football Reference)Justin Tucker's career resume is one of the best in NFL history. Can he continue this at 35 years old? (Source: Pro Football Reference)

Justin Tucker’s career resume is one of the best in NFL history. Can he continue this at 35 years old? (Source: Pro Football Reference)

Just as remarkable as the distance and success of his three brands are the moments in which he created them. Tucker didn’t fail for long after his misplaced kicks. He missed the extra point attempt in the first quarter and then missed the 50-yarder. Tucker missed 47 and 53 in the third quarter, but then made his extra point attempt at the end of the game.

This pattern reflected Tucker’s performance throughout the season. He made all 10 of his field goal attempts under 40 yards, compared to 9 of 17 from beyond 40 yards. He has now made 42 of 44 extra point attempts.

The Ravens’ analytics staff does not eliminate kicks made when analyzing the probabilistic outcomes of every decision in the game.

Jackson said his confidence in his kicker comes in part from Tucker’s successful previous game, when he hit three extra-point attempts and a clean 45-yard field goal in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Harbaugh also noted Tucker’s established arsenal of skills.

“I just think when you look at Justin Tucker’s history, you have to say he’s capable of it,” Harbaugh said. “We need him to make those kicks. Nobody wants to do these kickers more than Justin, I promise you that.

“He’ll be the first to tell you he needs to throw as many kicks as he can.”

Harbaugh is correct that Tucker appears physically and mentally capable of throwing a lot of kicks. His three goals on Sunday, including 50 minutes, do not suggest a devastating injury or debilitating ailment that would completely sap his strength or concentration.

Tucker spoke with poise and responsibility on Sunday evening about the need to think about hashes and techniques. He said his miss on the right side was an inaccurate hit rather than compensation for a previous miss, and he knew not to focus too much on the cost of his misses in order to refine his preparation.

“It’s pretty emotionally rough for me,” Tucker said. “Every time we lose it’s devastating, especially for me considering my performance today just wasn’t up to our standard. But at the end of the day, my feelings don’t matter.

“The important thing is: get back to work and do everything I can to help this football team in the home stretch.”

What will ultimately help the Ravens the most should be the deciding factor for Harbaugh and the Ravens leadership — even as their emotions and rich history with Tucker struggle to guide decisions.

Could the Ravens be reaching a point where they should reconsider kicks beyond 40 yards? They’re not necessarily there yet, but during the bye week they’ve now reached, they should establish a formula by which they must adjust their decision-making to reflect their kicker’s current performance rather than his previous performance. You should also train kickers in case Tucker’s accuracy declines even further.

Tucker has still shown he can hit both short and long kicks equally.

But the Ravens should think long and hard about their three losses, which come by margins smaller than the value of Tucker’s misses.

Two weeks ago, Tucker fell 47-50, ultimately resulting in a two-point loss to the now AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens’ Week 2 surprise loss to the Las Vegas Raiders was also by just three points – and also included a 53-point error.

This is not the time to sound the alarm or panic. But the Ravens should stay tuned. And in the coming days of a less emotionally charged bye week, create a framework that prepares the team for any outcome.

On Sunday, Harbaugh hinted at where that analysis has led so far.

“We’ve been working on it,” he said. “You work through it with each individual player. All you do is help the boys succeed. We do that.

“If you’re asking if we’re going to part ways with Justin Tucker, I don’t really have plans to do that at the moment. I don’t think that would be wise.”

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