The Yankees’ Plan B starts with Max Fried. Could they be better off without Juan Soto?

The Yankees’ Plan B starts with Max Fried. Could they be better off without Juan Soto?

DALLAS – The Yankees ultimately didn’t get what they wanted. But there is still time for them to get what they need.

Despite the World Series run in October, New York entered the offseason with more than a few holes on the roster. The starting rotation may not have seemed like it was included, but with Max Fried, the Yankees arguably have the best roster in the American League. While it was a surprise that they guaranteed the 31-year-old Fried the most money for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history ($218 million over eight years), their quick move to a second ace could provide coping flexibility of the problem provide an offensive gap created by the loss of the Juan Soto sweepstakes.

That sparked the following debate between our MLB writers:

Considering what the signing would have cost Juan Sotohow do you feel about it? Max Fried Contract? Could you see that? Yankees Be better off overall without Soto?

Deesha Thosar: Yankees fans can finally breathe a sigh of relief knowing that the team has dealt with the loss of Soto and has clearly moved on. Brian Cashman revealed that the Yankees were unable to respond to a competitive offer for Blake Snell as they waited to see how Soto’s decision would impact their payroll. That ultimately cost them as Snell quickly signed with the Dodgers. So it was wise of the Yankees’ front office to directly pursue Fried, the other top left-handed pitcher on the market, less than 48 hours after they lost Soto to the Mets.

I’m more surprised at the length of the Fried contract than the cost. Giving a 31-year-old with a history of recent forearm injuries an eight-year contract is certainly a risk. Fried has the third-best ERA (2.81) among all major league starting pitchers since 2020, but for the Yankees to bet that he will be anywhere near as productive in his age-39 season is bold.

However, the additional years the Yankees held on to the deal allowed them to lower his annual average value to $27.25 million, meaning they can continue to spend money The Winter.

Reading Cashman’s tea leaves, it sounds like the Yankees wouldn’t have been in the game for Fried if they had acquired Soto. With that in mind, the Yankees are starting to improve their roster — perhaps in a variety of ways — without Soto.

The rotation now consists of seven starters. Aside from Fried, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón are likely to be the only mainstays, with at least one of Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman likely to be substituted. There’s no denying that the Yankees’ offense is worse without Soto, but they can bolster it by swapping an arm or two for a slugger.

This is where a trade for Cody Bellinger starts to make a lot of sense for the Yankees. Bellinger’s versatility allows the Yankees to use him at first base, center field or right field, and while he’s no Soto (no one is), his left-handed bat plays well at Yankee Stadium. Bellinger is expected to make $27.5 million this season and has a player option for $25 million in 2026, and the Yankees still have payroll flexibility for him even after signing Fried.

Signing Fried alone doesn’t make the Yankees better without Soto, but they’re well-positioned to make a few more splashy moves to try to get there.

Rowan Kavner: That’s more than I expected for Fried, but in this post-Soto world my brain couldn’t function anymore. The average annual value is entirely reasonable – his $27.25 million per year is just a tick above what his rotation mate Carlos Rodón will make – but the length of the contract was a surprise, as Fried ended his age-31 season with a backlog begins – problems with the forearm for several years.

That’s a long time for a starting pitcher in his 30s, especially one with a history of injuries. On the other hand, the Yankees clearly felt they needed to do something quickly to save face following Soto’s departure, and they’re not wrong. I would have liked Snell more for them, but after missing out on him in pursuit of Soto, grabbing one of the top pitchers on the market certainly doesn’t hurt their cause, even if eight years is one or two more than I would have felt comfortable.

Fried’s consistency is exemplary. His ability to keep the ball on the ground and make soft contact has resulted in a 2.81 ERA over the last five years – the best mark among pitchers who have logged at least 500 innings during that time – and he has one ERA of 3.25 or less achieved every year in this stretch.

He was clearly in the upper echelon of free agent pitchers this winter, but for a contending team looking for a difference maker in October, I would have put him right behind Corbin Burnes and Snell given Fried’s inability to constantly missing bats. That’s gotten him into trouble in recent postseasons – he’s allowed 14 runs (12 earned) in his last three playoff appearances since 2022 – but he threw six shutout innings in Game 6 of the 2021 World Series, earning the Helped Braves win a championship.

It’s still hard to imagine a non-Shohei Ohtani player being worth more than $700 million, but to be better overall without Soto, the Yankees are going to have to do A LOT more work this winter. I don’t think that’s going to happen without multiple bats, at least not.

They would probably need to bring in two of Alex Bregman, Christian Walker or Teoscar Hernández to build a contention. On the trade market, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them pursue Cody Bellinger either, given his ability to help in the middle and early stages.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. Deesha, the daughter of Indian immigrants, grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the LA Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. Rowan, an LSU graduate, was born in California, grew up in Texas and then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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