Welcome back to the statistics lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I blog about the stats I used that week at Barstool Sports Advisors, as well as a few others I found in my research for each game we covered. As I go through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a particular division (not their own)? It’s probably not that important. Teams are constantly changing, and there’s nothing to suggest that the same teams in a division are playing a certain way or anything. But a coach who is doing really well during the bye week? That says something. A team that covers a lot as a street dog? This probably means they are constantly undervalued. League-wide trends that persist across hundreds of matchups for years? This is gold. So you have to look at each statistic individually and decide whether it is important.

Below is my entire advisor cheat sheet that I used this week. Lines courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change as of the time I put this together (Monday morning).

LW: 0-5 (but I had a new fedora on, so that doesn’t really count)

PERFORMANCE OF THE YEAR: 33-28 (33-23 with typical fedora)

Chicago Bears (4-7, 5-4-2 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (10-1, 9-2 ATS)

12:30 p.m. on CBS

DET -10.5

T 48.5

The Lions continue to absolutely destroy their teams, so betting against them is always a risk. But the data tells us that double-digit Dogs in division games are 16-8 ATS since 2022. The Lions also haven’t won on Thanksgiving since 2016. Maybe they are struggling to turn around because they are playing such physical and hard football under Dan Campbell Playing with only 3 days rest? This is just a theory, not a statistic!

The statistics say: Bears

New York Giants (2-9, 2-8-1 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-7, 3-7-1 ATS)

4:30 p.m. on FOX

DAL-4

T 38.5

It’s difficult to find meaningful trends in this game when both teams are playing a losing season with backup QBs. But here’s a stat: The Giants absolutely suck. No data can ever make me bet on it. Just take the Cowboys.

The statistics/common sense say: Cowboys

Miami Dolphins (5-6, 5-6 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3, 5-6 ATS)

8:20 p.m. on NBC

GB -3.5

T 47.5

The Dolphins team’s total score is 21.5 points. Tua has led the Dolphins to average 29 PPG since returning from injury, and with Mike McDaniel as head coach, he has averaged 26 PPG in away starts since 2022. I know it’s scary because of the cold weather in Green Bay, but they look a lot better and can score 22 points.

The statistics say: The Dolphins team scored over 21.5 points overall

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3, 8-3 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-7, 6-5 ATS)

1 p.m. on CBS

CIN -2.5

T47

This is a trend that absolutely blew me away. The Bengals are coming off a bye week and it has been 14 days since their last game. The Steelers are leaving TNF and it has been 10 days since their last game. In games in which both teams have at least a 10-day break, the lower team has scored 14 times in a row!!!! Eye-catching. And in their last 31 games they are 27-4. Astonishing.

The statistics say: Under

San Francisco 49ers (5-6, 4-7 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (9-2, 7-4 ATS)

8:20 p.m. on NBC (Sunday)

BUF -6.5

T46

At the time of recording Monday morning, it was unclear whether Purdy would return for the 49ers, making things difficult. So if we just focus on the Bills, we see that there has been an over in 8 straight Buffalo home games, averaging 52 PPG. It might not matter who starts as QB for San Francisco.

The statistics say: Over

If you missed the sloppy Thanksgiving advice, catch up now.