The Nevada football team plays at UNLV on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game against the Rebels with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in collaboration with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.

Nevada (3-9, 0-6 MW) at UNLV (9-2, 5-1)

When: Saturday, 5 p.m

Where: Allegiant Stadium (capacity 65,000)

Surface: FieldTurf

Weather: Highest value of 61; Low of 41

TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/105.7 FM (also on Varsity Network)

On-line: None

Betting line: UNLV at 17.5; total 55.5

All-time series: Nevada leads 29-20

Last matchup: UNLV won 45-27 on October 14, 2023 (in Reno).

Three keys to the game

1. Explosive plays on offense: UNLV leads the Mountain West in defensive win rate. This stat is the percentage of possessions you prevent the opponent’s drive from ending in points. The proportion of rebels is 68.6 percent, ranking 27th nationally; Nevada is at 51.4 percent, ranking 115th nationally. This is the best defense Nevada has faced this season, not named Minnesota, which shut out the Wolf Pack in September, even though UNLV has a better defensive win rate than the Gophers. As such, it won’t be easy for Nevada to make extended pushes, so the Wolf Pack needs a few splashes, and those would most likely come from the passing game as Nevada’s rushing attack has faltered over the past six weeks following injuries in the running back room . The wolf pack must transport explosives through the air.

2. Win singles matches in secondary school: Nevada will have to load the box to stop UNLV’s terrific running game, which ranks seventh nationally with 245.3 yards per game. That leaves the secondary one-on-one, which has generally been fine as cornerbacks Chad Brown and Michael Coats Jr. have played at a high level. Nevada stretched the box against Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty and still kept the Broncos’ passing game under control, forcing a poor performance from Maddux Madsen. But UNLV’s passing attack has been stronger, ranking 18th nationally in efficiency. Ricky White III is an NFL wideout who rushed for 166 yards and two touchdowns against Nevada last season. He’s 35 yards shy of 1,000 yards this season and Jacob De Jesus is a slippery slot receiver. Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams was an upgrade over Matthew Sluka, who left UNLV after three games due to a no-go. Bottom line: Nevada needs to slow UNLV’s freight train attack to win this game, which opens up the secondary, which has to be a good thing.

3. Red zone touchdowns: The Wolf Pack has been one of the best red zone teams in the country this season, converting touchdowns on 28 of 36 opportunities in that area, an outstanding 77.8 percent. But in Nevada’s last game, a three-point loss to Air Force, the Wolfpack went 0 of 2 in terms of touchdowns in the red zone (two short field goals were actually made). Field goals won’t beat UNLV, which averages 38.7 points per game, eighth-best in the country. Nevada will likely need to score more than 30 points to win this game, a mark it has reached only twice in its 10 games against FBS competition – a win over Oregon State and a loss to San Jose State. UNLV’s red zone defense has scored touchdowns on 20 of 33 opportunities (60.6 percent), about the national average; Nevada is at 65.3 percent. The Wolfpack must execute when given chances to score.

forecast

UNLV 30, Nevada 23: The Wolf Pack enters this game as 17.5-point underdogs, its largest lead against the Rebels since 1978, when Nevada won by 20 points as a Dog. Can the wolf pack pull off a similar surprise? While I wouldn’t rule it out, UNLV ranks in the top 20 in the country in rushing offense, passing offensive efficiency, rushing defense and special teams (and it’s 26th in pass efficiency defense, holding the quarterback it’s against played last week, at 4-of). -22 over). And did we mention that UNLV ranks third nationally in revenue margin? The Rebels might be the best team Nevada plays this season, and that includes two current top-15 teams in SMU and Boise State. The Wolf Pack challenged both of these ranked opponents before losing close games and was able to do the same against UNLV. But defeating the rebels is a task that is almost impossible to predict. Season balance: 8-4 (straight up); 6-5-1 (against the spread)

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight into sports in Northern Nevada. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.