There’s a less obvious piece of advice for building a fantasy football roster that I think more people should know this time of year; When debating between lineup options, not only choose the player who will have the higher score in the game (probably, of course), but also think about the player who has the most to play for in real life.

Take the Broncos and Chargers tonight, for example. According to NFL.com, the Broncos currently have a 91% chance of making the playoffs; With a win or a draw, Denver secures a spot in the playoffs. If they lose, their chances drop to 85%. The Chargers are in a similar boat; Your probability is currently 87%. If you win, 97%; with a loss, 72%.

With a win both teams would be in a good position, but with a defeat the sweating begins. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, this matchup itself doesn’t bode particularly well for a fantasy football bonanza.

Nonetheless, it is another game worth considering. So let’s get to the story of the tape.

Should we worry about Ladd McConkey being stranded on Surtain Island?

In the introduction above, I mentioned that while this game is very important for teams on both sides, it’s a bit lacking in viable fantasy talent. In fact, the quarterbacks and their No. 1 targets are probably as good as it gets.

That brings us to McConkey, who lays claim to being the best rookie wide receiver next to Brian Thomas Jr.

McConkey has battled injuries over the last three weeks and delivered three fantastic double-digit performances in a row. He was often Justin Herbert’s first target and has demonstrated the route-running and after-catch skills that have made him a coveted wide receiver prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Of course, when you pull up McConkey in your fantasy app, you’ll see a bright red “Den (30th)” next to his name. Not what you want to see next to any of your players in the fantasy playoffs.

The Denver Broncos defense has been a problem all season, and a large part of that can be attributed to the play of outside cornerback Patrick Surtain II. Surtain has been a problem for opposing receivers this season. According to PFF, he ranks third among 216 cornerbacks in overall position rating and second in coverage. He has four interceptions this season.

But take heart, McConkey manager. One thing in particular works for the rookie: he is a slot expert all season long. McConkey has played in the slot on over 70% of the Chargers’ passing snaps this season, meaning that if LA implements the same usage, McConkey will be avoiding Surtain’s outside coverage for the vast majority of his reps. And considering the Chargers don’t have many threatening weapons on offense, their job would be to move McConkey as often as possible in this game.

While McConkey’s ceiling may be lower than usual considering the entire matchup, he should provide the same level of security that he has had virtually all season. He has a clear WR2 advantage in this game.

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Starting Stone could be a smart move

(Sorry, I had to.)

The tight end has let us down again this season. We were hoping for a position that could provide 10+ points per week across a variety of options. Instead, we would be happy if we got six points in a week. Unless you have Brock Bowers, Trey McBride (can someone PLEASE get this man a touchdown), or George Kittle, there’s a good chance you’ve already turned your back on a higher-paying option.

If you’re having trouble filling your tight end spot, Stone Smartt might be able to help you tonight.

The 6-foot-2 Smartt recently stepped up to the Chargers’ offense thanks to an injury to starting tight end Will Dissly. Justin Herbert and the offense have prioritized tight ends this season, especially with the emergence of Dissly. So we were naturally curious when Smartt was named the starter. It was a little surprising to see Smartt immediately put in a heavy workload, completing five of six targets for 50 yards. But considering the Chargers lack any threatening receiving options, perhaps that shouldn’t be a surprise.

If Smartt played any other position, it would be a desperate start. But if you need help at TE and a game on the field with room for more (thanks to the playoff narrative surrounding this game, of course), consider Stone Smartt, who is available in 96% of leagues. However, keep in mind that the Chargers are activating Hayden Hurst from IR for tonight’s game. I still think Smartt will lead the way in snaps, but Hurst could get some work done, especially with the strong lineup.

Could Bo Nix be a playoff hero?

Bo Nix’s evolution this season from an age-related punchline to a serviceable – perhaps even above-average – NFL starter has been wonderful to watch. The same goes for him in fantasy. Nix has done damage on the ground, in the air, and at both points at the same time at various points this season. Sure, there were some questionable moments — he came away with multiple interceptions in two straight games — but overall, Nix had a solid start to this season.

Let’s remember Week 6, the last time the Broncos faced the Chargers, when Nix scored 21.74 fantasy points, threw two touchdowns and ran for 61 yards on the ground. One would expect Nix to want to repeat or exceed that performance, as this is essentially the battle for second place in the AFC West.

This Chargers defense was once very fearsome, but it barely allowed Baker Mayfield to rush for 288 yards and four touchdowns, good for 29.02 fantasy points. Broncos head coach Sean Payton will likely pull out all the stops to destroy his division rival, and Nix should be a direct beneficiary of that.

If you made it to the fantasy semifinals with Bo Nix, you’d probably let him start tonight anyway. So consider this your seal of approval for the rest of the playoffs, both in Week 16 and then into the fantasy championships, where Nix will face every quarterback’s dream – the Cincinnati Bengals defense.