Top 3 NBA bets and player props for Tuesday 12/31/24

Top 3 NBA bets and player props for Tuesday 12/31/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide range of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines and total bets. The association has 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow down the choice. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily NBA predictions, coupled with advanced NBA stats, can help provide insight into quality bets.

Which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook seem to be the best bets today using some of the tools mentioned?

Please note that lines may change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the Official NBA Injury Report.

Today’s best NBA bets and player props

Timberwolves at Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points (-102)

The Minnesota Timberwolves travel south tonight to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder, a sight that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be happy to see. SGA has averaged 33.7 points per game against the Wolves over the last three seasons, putting him in position to score over 31.5 points tonight.

SGA enters tonight’s game averaging 31.3 points in 34.6 minutes per game. He scored at least 32 points in 13 of 31 games this year, but his best performance came against the league’s best defenses. Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 32 points in eight of 12 games against top-10 defenses, for an average of 32.3 per game.

The Timberwolves ranked sixth in defensive rating entering Tuesday and have allowed the fewest points per game to opposing PGs. But they are mid-table in terms of points allowed to SGs and Shai has put together an excellent record against them. Over the last three years, SGA has scored at least 32 points in all seven meetings with Minnesota.

With 41, 45, 22 and 35 points in his last four games, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is well positioned to score over 31.5 points in a match where he has historically been successful.

Cavaliers at Lakers

Donovan Mitchell over 5.5 assists (+120)

The Cleveland Cavaliers boast a solid implied team total of 116.5 points against the Los Angeles Lakers’ 21st-ranked defense, making them a team to target in the prop market. With LA struggling to defend across the board, this is a spot where Donovan Mitchell can target the over with his 5.5 assists.

Mitchell enters Tuesday’s game averaging 4.6 assists per game – down from 6.2 last year, but still enough to give him the second-highest assist rate (17.5%) of his career.

That’s helped him rack up 6 assists in 11 of 31 games this season – a number that could rise in such a plus matchup against LA.

The Lakers have the twelfth-most points and sixth-most assists this season and are tormented primarily by opposing guards. According to Fantasy Pros, Los Angeles handed out the fourth-most assists to point guards and shooting guards.

Mitchell, on the other hand, was a solid defender against the league’s weaker defenses – even if his assist numbers don’t show it. Although he averages just 4.8 assists in defensive rating against teams in the bottom half, that comes with 9.5 potential assists per game – just 0.2 fewer than Darius Garland, who averaged 6.7 assists in the same split.

In a good match, I want the Cavaliers to improve Mitchell’s playmaking and help him get more than 5.5 assists.

Grizzlies at Suns

Below 236.5 (-110)

Today’s matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Phoenix Suns may have the highest over/under on Tuesday, but considering how slow the Suns are playing and how banged up the Grizzlies are, it’s a tad too high. Therefore, this is a point we can consider with an overall score of under 236.5.

Memphis now leads the league in pace and points scored and ranks 20th in scoring defense. And even though they will be without top scorer Ja Morant, the Grizzlies had no trouble scoring in his absence. They are averaging 123.5 points in 13 games without Morant – which is exactly in line with their season average (123.4).

But the Suns pose a unique challenge for the struggling Grizzlies team. Phoenix is ​​only 15th in scoring and 18th in scoring defense. However, the Suns play at the eighth slowest pace in the league, so possession could play an important role tonight.

That’s especially true given the way Phoenix has played with this current roster. With Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal sharing the field without Jusuf Nurkic, the Suns have the slowest pace in the league and a borderline top-10 defensive rating, according to Fantasy Labs.

Additionally, we have seen Memphis struggle against slower teams. In seven games against teams ranked in the bottom 10, the Grizzlies are averaging 117.6 points per game – significantly less than their season average. Only two of those seven games ended with more than 236.5 total points.

The Suns could do enough to prevent this with the return of Devin Booker, but they haven’t been a particularly high-powered offense since their three stars are all healthy. And since Memphis lost three of its top six scorers, I don’t expect as many points as the market.

NumberFire’s NBA predictions only predict 230 points in this case, so I’m happy to support the model and assume under 236.5 here.

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The above author is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The author’s advice does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice is not a guarantee of a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.

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