Top 5 NBA bets and player props for Saturday 1/4/25

Top 5 NBA bets and player props for Saturday 1/4/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide range of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines and total bets. The association has 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow down the choice. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily NBA predictions, coupled with advanced NBA stats, can help provide insight into quality bets.

Which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook seem to be the best bets today using some of the tools mentioned?

Please note that lines may change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the Official NBA Injury Report.

Today’s best NBA bets and player props

Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers

Over 233.0 points (-110)
Myles Turner over 14.5 points (-113)

There could be a shootout in Circle City.

The Phoenix Suns welcomed Devin Booker back into the lineup on New Year’s Eve, completely changing the mindset of their offense. Even with Bradley Beal (hip) sitting at tight end, the Suns have an offensive rating (ORTG) of 123.9 in five games in which Booker and Kevin Durant played without him. The offense could probably be better.

Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers remain one of the NBA’s most uber-friendly teams, with a bottom-10 defensive rating (115.3 DRTG) and a top-10 mark in pace. Their dynamic top duo must be happy at the prospect of Jusuf Nurkic (suspended) being out tonight.

Indiana’s over rate of 71.4% at home is the second best in the NBA, and Phoenix, with the same over rate on the road (71.4%), can meet the challenge.

One of the reasons the Pacers should score is the size difference I mentioned earlier.

Nurkic continually entered the Suns’ lineup and forced the team to give up the second-most points per game to the center position (26.0). They have also allowed the 10th-most points in the paint per game (48.9).

Enter Myles Turner. Turner is averaging 15.1 points per game this season and has exceeded that mark in five of seven contests. Phoenix is ​​an outlier matchup in the other direction, so your guess as to the existence of this total is as good as mine.

FanDuel Research’s daily NBA forecasts expect Turner to average 17.9 points tonight.

Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs

Spurs +3 (-112)
Nikola Jokic under 53.5 points, rebounds and assists (-108)

Oddly enough, the San Antonio Spurs might be the Denver Nuggets’ kryptonite.

San Antonio has now won two consecutive straight-up (SU) games against the 2023 NBA champions and has covered four of their last five games against the spread (ATS) where Victor Wembanyama was active. Wemby’s otherworldly activity resulted in 26.2 points, 13.0 rebounds and 4.0 blocks per game in that stretch, matching Nikola Jokic’s height.

In a back-to-back home-versus-home situation, there is no doubt that Spurs should actually improve their prospects after Friday’s win. Now at home, they also play a much deeper rotation than Denver without Aaron Gordon (calf).

Denver’s net rating (NRTG) in games without Gordon is just +3.4. San Antonio’s value is +1.7 in the games Wemby and Chris Paul have played. These teams just aren’t that different right now.

One of the reasons I would personally prefer San Antonio is how much of a burden the Nuggets are on Nikola Jokic’s plate.

Jokic averaged 37.0 minutes per game in December and was at exactly that mark last night. It’s not as much of a problem in the playoffs when there aren’t back-to-backs, but right now Denver demands that workload with a 30.0% usage rate, 22.2 rebound chances and 16.4 potential assists per game.

That’s a bet that he’s still human at this point.

In three straight games without Gordon, Jokic averaged 34.3 points, 9.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists – a total of 50.0 points, rebounds and assists (PRA). Of course he is. He’s tired. The rebound averages are the most suppressed.

Our forecasts only expect an average PRA of 50.2 in this case. The bottom is the side.

Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Clippers

Hawks under 110.5 points (-115)

Given yesterday’s injury report, I’m a little surprised that this line exists.

The Atlanta Hawks listed Trae Young (hand), Jalen Johnson (shoulder) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (leg) as questionable before facing the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday. We’ll see if all three play against the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday.

Key misses could add insane value to this star-studded team tonight, but there’s also reason to take this based on the team’s recent performances alone. In Atlanta’s last 10 games, their ORTG (112.3) and DRTG (112.2) have moved toward the middle of the pack despite having the second-fastest pace in the league during that time. That’s them Only about the pace in this phase.

LA brings a pretty great defensive spirit here too. Kawhi Leonard’s season debut should rock the Inuit Dome, a building where the Clips’ DRTG is 107.0. Also, Los Angeles is a huge drop in pace (23rd) that Leonard won’t improve.

Atlanta missed its team score for the second straight year before this back-to-back situation. I’m not sure this is the right environment to get back on track.

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The above author is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The author’s advice does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice is not a guarantee of a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.

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