Today we have two college football bowl games to close out the week. Let’s examine where the smart money is for both matchups using our VSiN CFB betting splits, updated every 5 minutes and coming directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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This is the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl and it will be played at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. North Texas (6-6) just ended a five-game losing streak with a 24-17 victory over Temple in the regular-season finale, although the Mean Green failed to be a 12-point road favorite. On the other hand, Texas State (7-5) has won three of its last four games and just defeated South Alabama 45-38, making it a 2.5-point road favorite.

This line opened with Texas State listed as a 7.5-point neutral site favorite. We saw a drastic line shift in favor of the Bobcats as Texas State moved from -7.5 to -14. The move toward Texas State came with a noticeable buyback from North Texas. On DraftKings, Texas State receives 54% of the spread bets but a whopping 74% of the spread dollars, indicating very little public support but also strong, harsh action in the form of a “low stakes, higher dollars” betting split. At Circa, Texas State receives 60% of the spread bets and 65% of the spread dollars, signaling that Pro and Joe are tying the scores in Vegas.

One of the main reasons we’ve seen such a massive shift in Texas State’s favor is the fact that North Texas suffers from an abundance of opt-outs and transfers. The Mean Green will be without their starting quarterback, top wide receiver, tight end and several offensive linemen. True freshman Drew Mestemaker is expected to start at center. On the other hand, Texas State’s starting quarterback Jordan McCloud (2,920 passing yards, 29 TDs this season) is expected to start for the Bobcats.

The total has been a roller coaster ride as it started at a high of 68.5 and plummeted to as low as 61.5 before rising back to the current level of 65.5. On DraftKings, the over receives 55% of the bets and 57% of the dollars. Meanwhile, Circa shows 36% of bets but 50% of dollars on the downside. Weather shouldn’t be a problem as the forecast calls for a high low of 60° with sunny skies and mild winds of 5 mph.

This is the Duke’s Mayo Bowl and it will be played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, home of the Carolina Panthers. Minnesota (7-5) just survived a two-game losing streak with a 24-7 victory over Wisconsin in the regular-season finale, making it easily the 2-point away favorite. Likewise, Virginia Tech (6-6) just ended a three-game losing streak with a 37-17 win over Virginia and is a 4.5-point home favorite.

That line started with Minnesota, which was listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. We saw a massive line shift in favor of the Golden Gophers, with Minnesota moving from -4.5 to -10. At DraftKings, Minnesota receives 57% of the spread bets and a whopping 83% of the spread dollars, a clear “lower stakes, higher dollars” betting split. At Circa, Minnesota takes 81% of spread bets and 87% of spread dollars, indicating strong one-sided support in Las Vegas.

Here too, opt-outs and transfers are an important factor. Virginia Tech is expected to be without 14 starters, including QB Kyron Drones and several offensive linemen and key defenders. On the other hand, Minnesota is expected to be close to full strength with very few, if any, significant opt-outs. Golden Gophers running back Darius Taylor (873 rushing yards, 9 touchdowns) recently said, “In Minnesota, we pride ourselves on bowl games…We work so hard during the season, so we consider it a privilege to be here.” We take “We are very serious as a team about winning these bowl games.”

Overall, we didn’t see much movement. It started at 42.5 and briefly reached 43 in some trades before falling back to 42.5. On DraftKings, the under gets 20% of the bets and 52% of the dollars. At Circa, the underling gets 20% of the bets and a whopping 90% of the dollars. In both books there is a massive, sharp contrarian betting discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game. Weather could also play a role here, as the forecast calls for a low 40 degrees with winds of 15 mph and gusts of up to 30 mph. This would be considered a “Windy Under” system match.