To be attractive at $100,000, Bitcoin needs to rise far from current levels. Even if Bitcoin (BTC) Should reach $150,000 per coin, that’s the kind of increase that most people would find achievable by picking the right stock. To achieve a multi-bagger profit, Bitcoin would have to rise significantly on the way to the legendary $1 million target. In my opinion that won’t happen.

The following forecast is a sketch of why a big increase seems unlikely and where I currently see the top:

The peak trendline gives an indication of where the top might be, and it is easy to use halving logic to suggest that $120,000 is a viable limit for the top of this cycle. Bitcoin bulls will view this as merely the start of a much higher move, but there is a problem. At $1 million per Bitcoin, Bitcoin’s implied market cap is $20 trillion, or 125% of the market cap of the top 7 US stocks, or almost half of the entire S&P 500. Bubbles can do crazy things to the Japanese emperor, for example In the 1980s, the palace was theoretically worth as much as the whole of California. However, this is not intended.

So the question is: are we at the top or are we at the bottom of this crypto cycle? I’m in the camp that believes we’re nearing the end of the season. This may seem sad, but it is not over yet for those looking for multi-bagger crypto opportunities.

In the last two cycles, this has been the exact time where you have been able to double your profits and do so with a fraction of the profit from the mainstream crypto position. In the last cycle, I exited at $40,000 after dollar-cost averaging at the previous low in the low four digits. I took my profit and took 20% of my profit and played the altcoins again for the same profit. At this point many will say, “You could have made 500% more profit if you had played everything.” That is true, but some will know that this is not the way to play and keep the winnings, but that you lose everything nine times out of ten. You only earn what you can keep, and Mr. Martingale is not your friend. That being said, now is the time to trade a little to earn big while locking in the majority of your profits.

The action takes place on Solana and Base and is the new AI token scene. Make no mistake, this is nothing more than gambling, or “technical trading” if you will, and in my opinion the chance of one of these tokens becoming a business is no greater than Pet’s dot-com darlings .com of yesteryear. However, they will fly upwards like a rocket and of course downwards just as quickly as a rock.

It’s a “stock picker” game and I don’t tip for tokens since they will all be nitroglycerin. But if you think Bitcoin is going to go up 20% to 50% from here, then this crazy stuff is going to multiply tenfold, if only for a few days or maybe weeks. That’s where the crypto dream stays, for a few weeks or maybe months.

For those who lack the “Epee” gene, there are now second altcoins. The latest Bitcoin rush is reinforced in these coins, and since they are venerable names, you can at least be sure that they have aged a little with time. All in all, cryptos will move indiscriminately with Bitcoin and for those who want to play this cycle until the end of days: the popular crypto pop will be found in the “assets” below the Bitcoin crown. In the final vertical, no matter how weak or powerful they may be, the junior ranks will be where the mad returnees live.

For me it’s for the birds, but for many it’s the dream.

Disclosure: I own cryptocurrencies.