Tyson Fury will face Oleksandr Usyk for the WBO, WBA, WBC and titles in Riyadh on Saturday Ring magazine Heavyweight Championship. Usyk won the first fight by split decision.

If Fury hopes to achieve a different result, he may have to address an issue that has emerged in recent fights – particularly in the first meeting with Usyk.

According to Jabbr, a company that has developed technology to assess the impact and effectiveness of every punch thrown and landed, Fury’s work rate and effectiveness declined in the second half of his fights.

Data analysis by Per Jabbr: “In contrast to Usyk, Fury seems to be less strong at the finish. He was less successful in rounds 11 and 12 against his previous opponents than he was in the previous rounds against them. In fact, he averages round 12 against his previous opponents.”

This trend continued against Usyk.

In the first fight with Usyk in May, “rounds 1 to 7 are a pretty even back-and-forth battle in terms of stats, but in round 8 the Fury drops dramatically in most metrics,” says the Jabbr data analyst. “His aggressiveness drops by almost half and he’s outscored by more than 3 to 1 on high impacts. The round appears to be a turning point in the fight. He recovers a bit in rounds 11 and 12, especially in terms of aggressiveness, but still ends up wrong overall.”

In the ninth round of the first fight, Usyk seriously injured Fury and scored the knockdown that dramatically changed the dynamics of the fight. If the rematch with Usyk goes the distance, Fury’s tendency to fade could come back to bite him again.

Fury threw more punches than Usyk in the first fight, but that was mostly due to his jab in the early rounds. As you can see from the blue and red indicators in the graphic above, Usyk’s pressure, aggression, punches landed, and powerful shots significantly outweighed Fury’s.

With Fury struggling to keep up later in fights, one has to wonder how much the extra weight he’s carrying might be exacerbating the problem. As of Friday, Fury weighed 281 pounds. That’s the heaviest Fury has ever been in a fight as a pro, and a full 55 pounds heavier than Usyk.

The extra size appears to be a calculated gamble on Fury’s part. It looks like he’s coming into the fight stronger to bully Usyk with inside fights. It’s also a possible indication that Fury doesn’t intend to let the fight go into depth.

Fury is likely fighting to take Usyk down and hopes his larger frame will help him in this mission. If Fury can’t get the job done early and Usyk is able to do effective bodywork, he could drag the Gypsy King into deep waters again.

If that happens, Usyk might not easily win the rematch. He was able to secure the knockout victory that he almost achieved in their first meeting. Here’s a look at the fight card in Riyadh:

• Oleksandr Usyk (c) vs Tyson Fury
• Moses Itauma vs. Demsey McKean
• Johnny Fisher vs. Dave Allen
• Dennis McCann vs. Peter McGrail
• Isaac Lowe vs Lee McGregor